By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
Translation generated by AI
• Coffee futures prices decline in New York and London
• Improved weather in Vietnam eases pressure on robusta
• Dollar appreciation contributes to falling global prices
• USDA revises estimates, pointing to slight growth in global production
• Market monitors Cecafé exports following tariff removal
• Extreme rainfall hits Vietnam, potentially setting a national record
• Coffee-producing regions face rainfall exceeding 1,000 millimeters
• Forecast suggests below-average rainfall and gradual improvement
Coffee futures prices ended last week lower and started this week under continued pressure in both New York and London. There were no significant changes in market fundamentals, and the market's behavior mainly reflected the activity of short-term speculative agents, alongside the influence of USDA reports on key producing countries. Last week, the March arabica contract on the New York exchange dropped 1.7%, closing at US¢ 374.85 per pound. In London, the most traded contract, also for March delivery, fell 5.3%, ending at USD 4,178 per ton.
The sharper pressure on robusta prices in London is tied to expectations of improving weather conditions in Vietnam. The country has faced excessive rainfall in recent weeks, causing post-harvest issues, quality losses, harvest delays, and logistical challenges. Weather models now indicate a normalization of precipitation over the coming weeks, which is likely to ease some concerns. Simultaneously, the appreciation of the dollar has also impacted international prices. The U.S. currency rose 1.9% last week, closing at R$ 5.44.
At the start of this week, the arabica contract in New York continued its downward trend, falling 2.53% to trade at US¢ 365.15 per pound at the time of writing. In London, the March contract dropped 2%, priced at USD 4,094 per ton. In the Brazilian physical market, prices also declined. The CEPEA indicator for arabica fell 1.6%, reaching R$ 2,217 per bag, while the robusta indicator dropped 2.3%, settling at R$ 1,372.42 per bag.
Arabica Futures Prices (US¢/lb) Robusta Futures Prices (USD/ton)
Last week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released updated reports on coffee production in several major producing countries. These documents revise the estimates made in June for the 2025/26 crop year. Projections for 2026/27 will be announced next year. Reports were updated for Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and India. The agency lowered its production estimate for Brazil in 2025 due to adverse weather conditions. Vietnam's projections were slightly reduced, although growth of 6.2% compared to the previous year is still expected. Estimates for Colombia and Indonesia were revised upward, while production in India remained stable.
Across these countries, the previous estimate of 125.8 million bags was adjusted to 126.1 million, reflecting a 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, this represents growth of 0.3% compared to 2024. For exports, the department forecasts 95.5 million bags, a slight increase of 0.5% compared to the previous estimate but a 1.4% decrease compared to the volume exported in the previous season.
Summary of USDA Estimates
This week, the market will closely monitor the release of Cecafé export data. This follows the recent removal of tariffs imposed by the United States on imports from Brazil. Weather conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, as well as the progress of the harvest in the Asian country, will also remain in focus for market participants.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that several Asian countries have faced devastation in recent weeks due to exceptional rainfall. In Vietnam, since October, a series of extreme precipitation events has affected various regions of the country. During the first week of December, the impacts of storm Koto, which previously hit the Philippines, combined with the influence of a cold front, resulted in further episodes of intense rainfall, particularly in the central-southern part of Vietnam.
The WMO highlighted that at the end of October, a weather station in the city of Hue, central Vietnam, recorded 1,739.6 mm of precipitation over 24 hours — a new national record currently under formal evaluation by the WMO's extremes committee. If confirmed, this figure could become the second-highest 24-hour precipitation record in the Northern Hemisphere and Asia, coming very close to the global record of 1,825 mm.
Between November 15 and 21, strong easterly disturbances combined with intensified cold air caused widespread rainfall, with accumulations ranging from 400 to 700 mm, and some locations exceeding 1,000 mm. Dak Lak province, one of Vietnam's largest robusta coffee-producing regions, recorded between 700 and 900 mm, with localized areas surpassing 1,200 mm.
Figure A shows Dak Lak province, the main hub of the central highlands, with rainfall levels classified as very heavy (purple) and heavy (red). The second-largest producing area, Lam Dong, recorded levels ranging from heavy (red) to moderate rainfall (yellow), while Dak Nong experienced precipitation ranging from moderate to light (green).
The consequences have been severe: hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, particularly in agriculture, as well as flooding of historic sites, tourist destinations, and significant impacts on infrastructure. The WMO also reported nearly 100 fatalities linked to extreme rainfall and flooding events in Vietnam alone.
The forecast for the next 15 days indicates that cumulative rainfall in the three main coffee-producing hubs will be below the climatological average, approximately 50 mm lower than expected for this time of year (Figure B). This suggests light rainfall may occur, but the trend points to more stable conditions, favoring soil drainage, resumption of harvesting in unaffected areas, and repairs to agricultural and transportation infrastructure.
(A) Recorded cumulative precipitation from November 15 to 22, 2025, monitored by the Vietnam National Meteorology and Hydrology Administration (VNMHA); (B) Forecast for cumulative precipitation over the next 15 days (December 8–22).
INDICATORS TABLE
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Brazil could still deliver a record arabica crop, but the bigger question for growers is what the next season holds. Out of season flowering and the swing of El Niño have put the spotlight on the rains still to come.
Daily coffee report
August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
