Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 15 Dec 2025, 18:58

Coffee Prices Under Pressure Due to Harvest Progress in Vietnam and Favorable Weather

Translation generated by AI

•   Robusta declines more than Arabica due to Vietnam and weather
•   Market starts the week down in New York and London
•   Domestic robusta follows external movement and retreats
•   Harvest in Vietnam accelerates after improved weather conditions
•   Funds reduce long positions in robusta in London
•   Favorable Brazilian weather supports positive outlook for 2026
•   Brazilian coffee exports drop 26.7% in November

Following last week's decline, coffee futures prices started this Monday on a downward trend, influenced by the progress of the harvest in Vietnam, harvesting activities in Central American countries, and positive expectations for crop development in Brazil. Last week, coffee futures prices showed negative movement, with the most active contract in New York for March delivery dropping 1.5% weekly, closing Friday at US¢ 369.30 per pound. As for robusta coffee, the most active contract for March delivery also declined in the London market, showing a 4.3% drop and trading at USD 3,999 per ton. The sharper drop in robusta reflects the progress of the harvest in Vietnam and improved weather conditions in the country.

This Monday (15), the market continues its negative trajectory. At the time of this report's preparation, the March contract in New York showed a 2.44% drop, trading around US¢ 360.30 per pound. In London, the most active contract recorded a 1.88% decline, quoted at USD 3,924 per ton. The observed dynamics align with the progress of the harvest in Vietnam, Central American countries, and Colombia, along with favorable weather conditions for crop development in Brazil.

In the Brazilian domestic market, the behavior was mixed. Despite a 0.4% decline in the dollar, which ended the week quoted at R$ 5.42, the Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee posted a 1.7% increase, reaching R$ 2,253.93 per bag. Meanwhile, the Cepea indicator for robusta partially mirrored external movement, registering a 2.9% drop to R$ 1,332.56 per bag.

Futures Prices for Arabica Coffee (US¢/lb) and Robusta Coffee (USD/ton)

Source: Cmdty View. Prepared by: StoneX.

From a fundamental perspective, the scenario remains largely unchanged. The primary factor currently influencing the market is the harvest progress in Vietnam. The country previously faced adverse weather conditions, with excessive rainfall causing delays and some losses. These losses were not significant, with the main impact being on the pace of the harvest and coffee quality. With improved weather, the harvest is advancing, and expectations are for increased availability of Vietnamese coffee in the coming months. Harvesting activity is also ramping up in Central American countries and Colombia.

Coffee Harvest Calendar in Producing Countries

Source: StoneX.

In the robusta market, it is notable that funds have reduced their long positions in London, decreasing from 17,337 net long contracts on December 2 to 12,571 contracts, a reduction of 27.7%.

Weather conditions in Brazil remain favorable, supporting positive expectations for production growth in the 2026 season. In November, StoneX released a preliminary production estimate of 70.7 million bags for 2026/27, a 13.5% increase, subject to potential adjustments due to climatic variations.

In the coming weeks, the market's focus will remain on the harvest progress in Vietnam and Central American countries, as well as on weather developments in Brazil. Any adverse weather conditions could impact the potential of the 2026 crop and shift price dynamics.

Another relevant topic is the reestablishment of Brazilian exports to the United States. Although tariffs on raw coffee have been removed, they remain in place for soluble coffee, continuing to affect export pace. The forthcoming release of the USDA global report “Coffee: World Markets and Trade,” scheduled for December 18, will also be important. The report will provide updates on production and consumption outlook for 2025/26. Estimates for the 2026 crop will only be released in June 2026.

Brazilian Coffee Exports Dropped 26.7% in November

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) released last week data regarding Brazilian coffee exports in November. According to the report, total exports amounted to 3.58 million bags, a 26.7% decrease compared to November 2024. Green coffee exports totaled 3.28 million bags, down 27.1%, with robusta standing out for a 67.9% drop, amounting to 259,300 bags. Arabica exports fell 18.3% to slightly over 3 million bags. Industrialized coffee also showed a decline of 21.6%, totaling 297,100 bags.

Brazilian Green Coffee Exports (millions of bags)

Source: Cecafé. Prepared by: StoneX.

The decline in Arabica exports reflects lower Brazilian production for the season, while the sharp drop in robusta results from higher differentials and improved competitiveness of Asian coffee. The decrease also reflects tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports. Regarding soluble coffee, even with the removal of tariffs on raw coffee, the manufactured product remains subject to taxation, which continues to restrict export performance. Brazilian exports to the United States fell 62.7% in November, totaling 330,700 bags. Germany retained its position as the main destination, receiving 681,160 bags, representing a nearly 28% annual increase.

INDICATOR TABLE

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

Coffee

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Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

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