• Arabica coffee closed at US¢ 377.20/lb on ICE, with a weekly drop of 1.9%
• Robusta coffee advanced 0.8%, closing at USD 5,397/t on the London exchange
• The dollar fell 0.8% during the week, reaching USDBRL 5.74
• IBGE estimates Brazilian production at 52.8 million bags
• StoneX will release the next Brazil crop report on 03/26
• ABIC sees no signs of weakening consumption
• Cecafé reports a 10% drop in Brazilian coffee exports
The futures prices of Arabica and Robusta coffee ended the last week lower in New York. With no major changes in fundamentals, prices declined amid a scenario of greater stability regarding weather conditions in Brazil, in addition to being influenced by technical factors. In New York, the most active contract, May, ended the week with a 1.9% drop, quoted at US¢ 377.20/lb. Meanwhile, in London, Robusta coffee futures recorded an increase of 0.8%, reaching USD 5,397/ton.
With the drop in quotations, there was increased buying activity by the industry due to prices being at lower levels. Meanwhile, origins remain on hold, with lower activity, expecting prices to rise back to the US¢ 400/lb level seen a few weeks ago.
Weekly intraday (most active contract) – 03/10 to 03/14
Amid a volatile week, coffee prices in the Brazilian domestic market followed external movements and ended the week lower. The Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee posted a weekly decline of 0.8%, reaching R$ 2,494.82 per bag. Meanwhile, the indicator for Robusta coffee increased by 1.5%, reaching R$ 2,010.56 per bag. The dollar registered a 0.8% drop during the week, closing at USDBRL 5.74.
From a fundamental perspective, the market remains practically unchanged. Market participants are now focused on the potential impacts of inflation on consumption and the upcoming Brazilian coffee harvest, which is expected to begin in some regions in the second half of April.
One of the most important aspects concerns Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest. Recently, IBGE released its crop estimate, projecting a volume of 52.8 million bags, with 34.9 million of Arabica coffee and 17.9 million of Robusta coffee. However, these figures do not align with most market projections. StoneX had pointed out, even in its November report, a more than 10% decline in Arabica production to 40 million bags. For Robusta production, expectations are for a significant 21% increase to 25.6 million bags. StoneX continues to conduct fieldwork to collect data in producing regions, and the next report with updated estimates will be released on March 26.
An article from Coffee Network, a StoneX Group company, reported that the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) stated that, between November 2023 and October 2024, coffee consumption increased by 1.1%, totaling more than 21.9 million bags. Additionally, despite concerns regarding inflation's impact on consumer coffee prices—which have already risen by more than 50% over the past 12 months—ABIC has not yet identified clear signs of declining demand in the Brazilian domestic market.
Last week, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) released data on Brazil's coffee exports for February. According to the report, total exports reached more than 3.27 million bags in February, representing a 10.4% drop compared to February 2024. Green coffee exports totaled nearly 3 million bags, a 11.7% decline. The largest drop was in Robusta coffee exports, which fell 60%, reaching just over 226,000 bags. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee exports declined 2% to 2.77 million bags. On the other hand, processed coffee exports grew 6.8%, reaching nearly 278,000 bags.
Brazilian green coffee exports (million bags)
Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX.
Additionally, according to the report, the average price per exported bag exceeded US$ 363, and total export revenue surpassed R$ 6.8 billion. In the cumulative coffee year, which began in June 2024, Brazil has already exported 33.45 million bags, reflecting an 8.8% increase compared to the same period last season. Total revenue has already surpassed R$ 55 billion, marking an increase of more than 86% compared to the same period last season.
-
What we are reading:
-
CeCafe: Brazil’s February Green Coffee Exports Fall 11.7% Year on Year
-
ABIC: Brazilian Coffee Consumption in Jeopardy from Rising Prices
-
Roadblocks in Colombia Prevent Coffee Growers To Transport Beans, Prevent Fertilizer Arrival
INDICATORS
