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Colombia’s Coffee Growers On Tenterhooks of El Niño, Some Cut Production Estimates for 2022-2023

By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

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Colombia’s Coffee Growers On Tenterhooks of El Niño, Some Cut Production Estimates for 2022-2023

 
Diana Delgado
Latin American writer
diana.delgado@stonex.com

Colombia’s Coffee Growers On Tenterhooks of El Niño, Some Cut Production Estimates for 2022-2023

Coffee Network (Bogota) - Expectations of strong droughts in Colombia later this year have led some of the country's coffee growers and exporters cut their production estimates for the coffee year 2022-2023- and 2023-2024.

 The El Nino weather phenomena is producing high temperatures across the country, and the tendency is expected to worsen into June onwards when it will begin to consolidate, the country’s weather office Ideam said.

Coffee growers in Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee grower, are on tenterhooks ahead of expected stronger droughts.

After experiencing La Niña for three consecutive years with torrential rains across this Andean nation, Ideam has said El Niño most likely will begin to hit towards the end of June, and it will consolidate in late 2023.

Pedro Echavarria, a large coffee grower in the Antioquia province, said the arrival of El Niño could deteriorate the 2023-2024 harvest because this intense and unforeseen dry spell affects both the October harvest, which is just beginning to fill up, and the Mitaca, which should register flowerings in September.

Echavarria says the current harvest 2022/23 will total approximately 10 million bags of 60-kg and the next 23/24 may be even lower depending on the "El Niño”.

“Water stress is necessary for flowering but not in excess that causes El Niño to limit the "filling" of the grain -like the ravages of Brazil-. Also, fertilization has been tremendously reduced as well as renewal of plantations.  And that is happening not only in Colombia but also throughout the world, especially in countries that grow Arabica,” he said.

In the southeast of Antioquia, two excellent flowerings were reported in January and February but rains are needed now to allow the filling of the grain, large coffee grower and exporter Juan Alvaro Arboleda,said.

Two flowerings were also recorded in the traditional coffee belt but they also need showers to allow the proper filling of the bean.

“If there are no rainfall around midyear, it will not allow the proper filling of the beans,” Arboleda said.

The drought from earlier this year had created fertile conditions broca worms, which eat bean kernels and damage trees, Arboleda added.

The coffee growers federation declined to say what is the percentage of broca hitting plantations.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America. El Nino usually recurs every 3-7 years with varying degrees of intensity.

Ideam said for as long as records have been kept, the warmest years have been El Niño years. In fact, the one with the highest temperatures was 2016.

But coffee grower and member of the Quindio coffee committee Fabio Buitrago is more optimistic. He says a dry spell creates the perfect conditions to promote flowerings amid an increase in luminosity.

Buitrago though recognized that an extreme dry condition could deteriorate the filling of beans.

In addition, the dry spell occur at times coffee growers have failed to fertilize on high fertilization costs.

According to Buitrago, fertilization has fallen by 6% so far this year on year, a factor that will affect coffee plantations.

“Even though coffee prices remain high, there is no cost benefit to deliver coffee to buy fertilizers. Growers have have lowered the fertilization and that is why you see a decrease in the harvest,” eh said.

 Colombia’s coffee production fell 25% in April, speeding up the contraction after having fallen 13% in March, as torrential rains earlier last year prevented the key flowering season to take place. Output in the 12-month period through April, a good gauge to predict fully year production, fell 9%, the coffee growers federation (FNC), said late last night.

Colombia produced 566,000 bags in April, down from 750,000 bags in the same period last year. This is the lowest monthly figure since September 2012 when it produced 519,000 bags.

By Diana Delgado

  • Coffee

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