Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
CONAB: Brazil’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 46.9 Million Bags
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CONAB: Brazil’s 2021-2022 Coffee Crop Forecast at 46.9 Million Bags
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Today, Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB, released their third survey of the 2021-2022 coffee crop. Production is now estimated at approximately 46.9 million bags of coffee, down 25.7% from the 2020 harvest. This is also a 3.9% reduction from their previous estimate of 48.8 million bags.
The area in production is currently estimated at 1.8 million hectares, 4.4% smaller than the previous harvest.
The Conab survey occurred at a time when more than 95% of the planted areas have already been harvested. The results of the field research therefore confirm a considerable reduction in production compared to the previous harvest, which was considered a record. In addition to the physiological effects of negative bienniality, observed in several producing regions in this cycle, the reasons for the reduction also include the adverse weather conditions of drought in many locations and frosts, which occurred in June and July. These factors influenced both the reduction of the average yield and the reduction of the area in production.
Arabica coffee production is estimated at 30.7 million bags, 36.9% less than the volume produced in the previous harvest. Conilon is expected to reach a production of 16.15 million bags, indicating an increase of 12.8% over 2020.
Minas Gerais is expected to reach 21.4 million bags, a reduction of 38.1% compared to 2020.Espirito Santo’s production should be just over 14 million bags, 11 million for conilon and 3 million for Arabica. Next comes the state of São Paulo, with an estimated production of 4 million bags of Arabica coffee. This represents a reduction of 35.1%, compared to the previous harvest, which reached just over 6 million bags. Bahia is expected to produce almost 3.5 million bags, 13% more than in 2020. Rondônia will harvest almost 2.2 million bags, a decrease of 11.3%. In Paraná, production is estimated at almost 873,000 bags of coffee. Rio de Janeiro has expected production of 236,000 bags, a reduction of 36.4%. In Goiás production is forecast at 212,000 bags, 14.4% less than in 2020. Finally, Mato Grosso is expected to produce 194,000 bags. Unlike the other states, Mato Grosso represented an increase of 22.6% compared to the previous harvest.
After a record 43.9 million bags exported in 2020, the volumes exported in the first eight months of 2021 reached an even higher level than that observed in the same period last year. From January to August 2021, Brazil has already exported about 28.4 million bags of 60 kg in green coffee, an increase of 8.7%. These exports tend to remain high due to the appreciation of coffee prices in the international market and the high exchange rate in Brazil. However, there is a limitation in internal availability due to the fall in coffee production in 2021.
Additionally, there is a great concern with the production to be harvested in 2022, due to prolonged drought and the occurrence of frosts this winter. The scenario of uncertainty regarding future supply leaves many producers withdrawn and removed from the market, holding back the supply of their on expectation of more attractive prices in the future. In addition to the climate problems on production, the high level of exports further accentuates the restriction of domestic supply and the increase in prices in the domestic market.
With regard to the increase in Arabica coffee prices, this is mainly due to the drop in production in Brazil in 2021 and the estimated growth of global demand in the 2021/22 cycle, due to the advance of the covid-19 vaccines in consumer centers, such as Europe and the United States. In this scenario of strong appreciation of Arabica prices, the industry tends to increase the demand for robusta coffee to reduce the cost in the production of blends.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
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