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CONAB Pegs Brazil’s 22 Crop at 55.7 Million Bags

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

CONAB Pegs Brazil’s 22 Crop at 55.7 Million Bags
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor 

CoffeNetwork (New York) - According to the first survey of Brazil’s 2022 coffee crop, released on today by the National Supply Company (Conab), the expected production is 55.7 million bags. The estimate, if confirmed, represents an increase of 16.8% compared to 2021 – an increase was already expected due to the previous season being of negative bienniality for the crop.

The fall in production this year, when compared to 2020, is a reflection of adverse weather conditions recorded mainly between July and August in 2021. The drought and frosts that occurred with greater intensity in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Paraná, impacted the physiological conditions of the cafezais. While Arabica did not fulfill its best potential, the variety is expected to increase by 23.4% compared to the previous harvest, at 38.7 million bags.

For conilon, the expectation is a new record with the harvest reaching close to 17 million bags. The increase of 4.1% in relation to the previous harvest combines the increase in the estimated planted area of 3%, from 375.2 thousand hectares to 389.1 thousand hectares, and a slight improvement in productivity of 0.4%, from 43.4 bags harvested per hectare cultivated to 43.6 sc/ha.

Area – The area for coffee, when considering the two varieties, totals 2.23 million hectares, representing an increase of 1.7% over the previous cycle. Considering only the crops in production, the index is close to stability and adds up to 1.824 million hectares, compared to the previous period. On the other hand, the training area is expected to increase by 6.4%, reaching 416,700 hectares. If we compare with 2020, the last year of positive bienniality, the growth for areas not yet in production reached 50%. "This high increase in the area under training shows the effects of adverse weather conditions recorded last year. Drought and low temperatures required more intense pruning, leading to a significant area of coffee for production only in the 2023 or 2024 crop.", points out the Company's Director of Agricultural Policy and Information, Sergio De Zen.

Market – The scenario at the beginning of the year is a restriction of coffee supply in the domestic market, influenced by the reduction in production in 2021, heated export demand and the off-season. Even with the highest production estimated in the country in 2022, the trend is that product prices remain under pressure, since a reduction in world coffee stocks is expected for the 2021/22 cycle. This high price panorama stimulates external sales.

In 2021 alone, Brazil exported about 42.4 million bags of 60 kilos of green coffee, which represents a 3.3% decrease from the volume exported in the previous year, but an increase in revenue of 15.3%, reaching US$ 6.4 billion. It is worth remembering that in 2020 the country recorded the record sales to the foreign market, favored that year by the largest production ever recorded in Brazil. In addition, even with the reduction recorded in shipments between 2020 and 2021, the amount exported last year is 14.3% higher than the average export of the previous five years.

Alexis Rubinstein

  • Coffee

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