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Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Short covering continues to support corn prices
 
Raphael Bulascoschi
Market Intelligence Analyst
raphael.bulascoschi@stonex.com
During a holiday week in the US, corn futures posted further gains.
  • Bearish Factors
  • Expectation of high stocks at the end of the 23/24 and 24/25 crop years;
  • Figure of crops in good/excellent levels above average;
  • High productivity prospects in the US.
  • Bullish Factors
  • Slow marketing pace in both Brazil and the US;
  • Prospects of an interest rate cut cycle beginning in the US in September;
  • Short covering activity in recent weeks;
  • Unfavorable weather in South America.

Weekly summary  | Corn futures experienced sustained gains in both international and domestic markets. In Chicago, the December/24 contract closed last week at 406.25 US¢/bu, marking a 1.7% increase. This upward movement was likely supported by short covering, as attention shifted from the robust North American crop—previously a bearish factor in recent months—to developments in South America. This hedging of positions, evident since late August, was further exposed when CFTC data last week revealed a net short position of 176.2 thousand contracts, 65.7 thousand fewer than the previous week. 

US Crop  | The US is expected to harvest a large crop, with the USDA forecasting the highest productivity on record, which could result in the second-largest harvest in US history. While there are concerns about drought in the US Corn Belt that may impact late-stage development, milder temperatures are mitigating the negative effects of dry weather. Crop conditions remain favorable, with 65% of the area rated as good/excellent, unchanged from the previous week. 

StoneX Estimates  | Last Thursday, StoneX US published updated data on US crop productivity. The national average is now estimated at 11.48 tonnes per hectare, a slight increase of 0.04 tonnes/hectare compared to August’s estimate, aligning closely with the USDA’s figure of 11.49 tonnes/hectare. Despite the positive revision in productivity, the projected harvest size has been reduced to 384.24 million tonnes—around 2 million tonnes less than the August report—due to revisions in planted area across several producing states.

image-20240909163858-1

US Exports  | Export sales data released last Friday showed disappointing figures, with a significant number of cancellations for the current crop year. This is typical at the end of the marketing year as buyers adjust positions. The net result was a cancellation of roughly 170 thousand tonnes from the current crop. However, the strong purchases of 1.8 million tonnes for the new crop, coupled with steady shipments, provided some relief to the market. 

Intraday (15 min) December/24 contract - CBOT

image 100403
Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.

B3 and FX  | In Brazil, corn futures followed Chicago’s lead, ending the week higher despite a strengthening real in the foreign exchange market. The November/24 corn contract on B3 closed Friday (6) at BRL 66.07 per bag, up 3.6% for the week. Brazilian weather conditions, explored further below, likely provided some support for the rise in prices.

The US dollar experienced a slight depreciation in the interbank market last week, as labor market data suggested the US economy might achieve a "soft landing"—controlling inflationary pressures without triggering a recession. Market attention will remain focused on US CPI data, which could induce some volatility ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where an interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to begin. 

Weather – Brazil | As the US crop season nears completion, focus is shifting to South America, where weather conditions are adding upward pressure on prices. In Brazil, hot and dry weather persists, which is expected to delay soybean planting and the first corn crop. The concern is that this delay could also push back the planting of the second corn crop next year, increasing the risk of lower productivity in the 2024/25 season. 

Exports – Brazil  | Brazilian corn shipments continue to lag behind the five-year average. Just over 6 million tonnes were shipped last month, bringing the season’s total to 13.1 million tonnes, compared to an average of 14.3 million tonnes in recent seasons. StoneX estimates point to 35 million tonnes of exports for the current crop year. 

Intraday (15 min) November/24 contract - B3

image 100402
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

This week | For the week starting on September 9, the market is expected to focus on the upcoming WASDE report, scheduled for Thursday (12). Additionally, weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina will be closely monitored, as the first planting cycle begins in the coming weeks, with potential delays due to ongoing drought. Lastly, macroeconomic data, including US CPI figures and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy statement, could introduce further volatility. 

Future and spot prices

 

Futures contracts traded on the CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 100399​
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
 

Futures contracts traded on B3 (BRL/bag)

image 100400​
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)

image 100401
Source: StoneX.

​

INDICATORS
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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