StoneX logo
Contact us

Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Add us as preferred source on Google
Corn approaches US¢400/bu as bearish trends strengthen
 
Raphael Bulascoschi
Market Intelligence Analyst
raphael.bulascoschi@stonex.com
Positive supply outlook keeps pressure on the market; demand also showed positive signs during the week 
  • Bearish factors
  • High stock projections for the 23/24 and 24/25 crop years;
  • Accelerated harvest progress of the US crop.
  • Bullish factors
  • Downward revision of US carryout;
  • Stronger US export sales.

Weekly Summary | Corn futures traded in Chicago were in negative territory for most of last week, closing at US¢405.75/bu (-2.6%) for the December/24 contract. While bearish supply trends, driven by favorable US outlooks, are gaining momentum, positive export sales data helped limit losses on the demand side. However, on Thursday, the nearest contract traded below US¢400/bu at some points. 

Intraday (15 min) December/24 contract - CBOT

image 102512

Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.

US Crop and Mississippi River | The US corn crop continues to be harvested at an accelerated pace, favored by ideal weather conditions. The latest US Crop Progress report showed that 47% of the area was harvested, compared to the five-year average of 39% for the same reference week. 

While the dry weather in the US is benefiting harvest operations, it is also raising concerns elsewhere. The low levels of the main US rivers, which are critical for grain transport, continue to pose logistical challenges and drive up freight costs, potentially harming US competitiveness. 

US Export Sales | The market reacted positively to the latest export sales figures released last Friday by the USDA. More than 2.2 million tonnes were sold during the reference week, more than twice the four-week moving average and the three-year average for the same period. However, shipments remained low, with only 500 thousand tonnes shipped. 

Intraday (15 min) November/24 contract - B3

image 102513​

Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

Brazil | Corn contracts traded on the B3 had another week moving contrary to Chicago, as the exchange rate continued to support domestic corn prices. The November/24 contract on the B3 closed the week at R$69.25 per bag, up 1.1% from the previous week. The dollar appreciated by about 1.5% against the real, driven by strong retail sales data in the US and the prospect of higher future interest rates in the world's largest economy, which strengthened the US currency. 

Last week, Conab released its first projections for the 2024/25 crop. According to the company, corn production is expected to increase by around 3.5%, driven mainly by productivity gains, as planted area projections remain largely unchanged. According to the report, Brazil is expected to produce 119.74 million tonnes of corn (+4.04 million tonnes year-over-year), consume 87.03 million tonnes (+2.79 million tonnes year-over-year), and export 34 million tonnes (-2 million tonnes year-over-year). 

Future and spot prices

 

Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 102514​
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
 

Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/bag)

image 102515​
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

Spot prices in Brazil (R$/bag)

image 102516
Source: StoneX.

​

INDICATORS 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.