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Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Corn driven lower in Chicago by harvest progress in the US
 
João Pedro Lopes
joao.lopes@stonex.com
US corn exports and sales begin to speed up
BEARISH FACTORS
  • Fears about a possible new wave of coronavirus cases;
  • Expectation of less tight US and global stocks in 2021/22;
  • Progress in US harvest.
BULLISH FACTORS
  • Advancing vaccination roll out against Covid-19;
  • Resumed activity in some of the terminals affected by Hurricane Ida in the US Gulf.
 

The first session of last week was slow for the corn market in Chicago, without major surprises in terms of fundamental. On Monday, December/21 lost 0.75 cents/bu in the intraday.
 

In the USDA’s weekly export inspection report, it was possible to observe an improvement of the USA shipment rate, but the volumes remain below that observed in the previous year. The US shipped 808,800 tonnes of corn in the week ended September 30, against 636,000 in the previous week and 911,000 in the same period of 2020. As a result, exports accumulated in the 2021/22 crop (Sept/21 to Aug/22) totaled 2.1 million, compared with 3.7 million in the same period of the previous season.
 

The NASS released its crushing figures for August, indicating that the US used 10.6 million tonnes of corn for fuel production. Adding the figures from September to August, the official number of corn used for ethanol production is 127.8 million, against the estimate of 127.9 million by the USDA in September. 
The October crop survey carried out by StoneX pointed to production of US corn at 381,57 million tonnes and yield at 11.08 t/ha, above the USDA September estimates of 380.93 million tonnes and 11.07 t/ha.
 

The USDA released its latest crop progress report. By October 3, 59% of the US crop was in good/excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and in line with market expectations. In relation to field work, the harvest in the country reached 29%, also as expected by the agents.
 

Intraday (15 min) - December/21 (CBOT)

image 19559
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
Corn Prices - CBOT (cents/bushel)

image 19560
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
On Tuesday, futures retreated, pressured by the firm advance of the US harvest. December/21 ended the day losing 3.25 cent/bushel.
On Wednesday, the corn market did not have a well-defined trend in Chicago. Once again, the session featured no great news for corn fundamentals. December/21 closed the day again in the negative field, accumulating a 5.25-cent/bu drop, pressured by the harvest progress in the country.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on the day that US ethanol production rose to 978,000 barrels per day (kbpd) in the week ended on October 1sy, a weekly decline of 64 kbpd. On the other hand, stocks dropped by 289,000 barrels, to 19.93 million.
 
Weekly US export sales - 2021/22

image 19562
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.
On Thursday, corn futures closed in the positive field, receiving support from technical movements and the USDA export sales report. December/21 ended the day gaining 1.75 cents/bushel from the previous day.
The USDA reported net sales of 373,000 tonnes for the 2021/22 crop in the week ended September 30, exceeding the previous week’s volume of 370,400 and market expectations, which ranged from 350,000 to 800,000 tonnes. In the same period last year, US net sales had totaled 1.2 million tonnes. As such, commitments to all destinations rose to 26.6 million tonnes, compared with 25.8 million tonnes in the same period last year.
CONAB announced on the day its estimates for Brazil’s 2021/22 corn crop, indicating production at 116.3 million tonnes, which represents a 33.7% growth in the annual comparison. This increased production is the result of both an increase in planted area and productivity. It is also worth noting that, with larger supply, CONAB also expects export growth in 2021/22, to 39 million tonnes.
On Friday, again with the prospects of a good US harvest progress standing out in the market, corn futures retreated in Chicago. December/21 lost 3.5 cents/bushel, closing the week quoted at 530.5 cents/bushel. With this, the contract accumulated a drop of 11 cents/bushel in relation to the end of the previous week, or 2%.
According to StoneX’s follow-up, first-corn planting in Brazil reached 37.7% up to October 8, compared to 30.7% last year. It is also worth highlighting the rapid progress of soybean planting, which has already reached 10.6%, compared to 3.7% in the previous year, a favorable scenario for safrinha corn planting to taje place within the ideal window.
Tomorrow (12), the USDA will disclose its new crop estimates. Average market estimates point to a marginal reduction in US production for the 2021/22 crop to 380.33 million tonnes. On the other hand, the market expects US and global ending stocks to grow to 36.37 million tonnes and 298.76 million tonnes, respectively.
 
SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

image 19563
Source: StoneX, Agrolink and IMEA. Design: StoneX.
 
WEEKLY AGENDA
BRAZIL
image 19571
 
UNITED STATES

image 19570
 
EU AND CHINA

image 19569
 
 
 
 
 
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