Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 11 Jul 2022, 12:24

Weather conditions in the US and fear of recession remain the main drivers for corn

João Pedro Lopes

After starting the week sharply low, the prospect of drier weather in the US and a buying movement by funds boosted contracts

BEARISH DRIVERS

Slower-than-expected recovery of Chinese economy;
Fear about a global recession.

Bullish DRIVERS

Restricted grains supply due to conflict in the Black Sea;
Drier weather in east US belt.

Because of the US Independence Day on Monday, July 4, the first trading session of last week in Chicago took place on Tuesday. Corn futures started the week with a strong bearish move, which was also seen in other commodities and the equity market. More favorable weather prospects in the US Midwest contributed to this movement, encouraging the funds to sell futures. The contract maturing in September/22 ended the session with a contraction of 27.5 cents/bu on a daily basis, quoted at 592.25 cents/bu.

According to the USDA's weekly export inspection report, the US shipped 676,800 tonnes of corn in the week ended June 30, 570,100 tonnes below the volume exported the previous week and 574,800 less than in the same period of 2021. Cumulative exports totaled 48.1 million tonnes, 10.2 million less than the same time of last season.

Later in the day, after the session closed, the USDA released its weekly crop follow-up report. By July 3, 64% of corn crops were in good or excellent condition, a drop of 3 points in the weekly comparison. Agents were already expecting a decline in good/excellent conditions, as the US Midwest experienced drier weather in the week ended July 3 but were hoping for a slightly smaller decline of 2 points. In the same period last year, 64% of the crops were in good or excellent condition.

Intraday (15 min) - September/22 (CBOT)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Corn Prices - CBOT (cents/bushel)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

On Wednesday, the grain market had a very volatile day in Chicago, posting strong devaluations throughout the session, but ending the day in a positive field. September/22 finished with 7.5 cents/bu of gains on the intraday.

Fears related to a possible global recession remain an important bearish fundamental, not only for corn, but also for commodities and the stock market in general. Even so, as already mentioned, corn once again closed a session in the positive field on Wednesday. Weather models began to indicate the occurrence of warmer conditions in the corn belt, which could harm the development of crops in the country, leading to a movement of corn buying, to a level well below that of a few weeks ago.

On Thursday (7), contracts had another day higher, pulled by crude oil futures. Despite rains in the Midwest, which alleviated the drought in the region and reduced the bullish market push, the buying movement prevailed. September/22 rose by 9.25 cents/bu compared to the previous close.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US ethanol production declined to 1,044,000 barrels per day (mbpd) for the week ended July 7, which was 7 mbpd lower than the previous week. Stocks, on the other hand, advanced to 23.49 million barrels, against 22.75 million the previous week.

On the same day, Conab released its monthly survey of the Brazilian grain crop. Regarding the first 2021/22 corn crop, the organization kept production at 24.8 million tonnes. The second crop, on the other hand, was raised to 88.45 million tonnes, due to a productivity review. The third crop also remained practically unchanged, at 2.4 million tonnes. As a result, total production for 2021/22 was estimated at 115.66 million.

Weekly US export sales - 2021/22

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

On Friday, after two days of modest rallies, corn futures showed a stronger movement of appreciation. September/22 accumulated a daily high of 24.25 cents/bu. As a result, the contract in question ended the week quoted at 633.25 cents/bu, accumulating an appreciation of 13.5 cents/bu, or 2.2%.

Once again, the weather was one of the main drivers of contracts, with the prospect of a drier condition in the US belt supporting prices.

The USDA reported that net sales for the 2021/22 crop totaled -66,600 tonnes in the week ended June 30 (i.e., the number of cancellations was greater than the number of sales). In the previous week, net sales had been 88,800 tonnes, while in the equivalent week of 2021 the US recorded net sales of 173,200 tonnes of corn. The volume was below the range expected by the market, which varied between 200,000 and 500,00 tonnes. Commitments to all destinations rose to 60.4 million tonnes, against 69.7 million in the same period last year.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

Source: StoneX, Agrolink and IMEA. Design: StoneX.

Grains & Oilseeds

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