Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Mon, 10 Apr 2023, 17:19

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After three consecutive weeks of gains, corn futures fall in Chicago

João Pedro Lopes

joao.lopes@stonex.com

Despite the improved pace of US export sales, slower corn shipments and technical movements weighed on quotes

Bearish drivers

Concerns about a possible recession;
Fears of a global crisis following the bankruptcy of US banks;
Favorable prospects for Brazilian production;
Increased corn area in the US;
Slower pace of US shipments.

Bullish drivers

Poor conditions of the Argentine grain crop and delayed harvest pace;
Concern about the Black Sea grain export agreement;
Lower-than-expected stocks in the US.

Last week, a shorter due to Good Friday holiday on Friday, corn futures retreated in Chicago, with the contract expiring in May 2023 ending Thursday (6) quoted at 643, 5 cents/bu, down 17 cents/bu for the week, or 2.6%, ending a three-week run of weekly gains.

Intraday (15 min) - May/23 (CBOT)

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Export Inspections Report shows an increase in the deficit compared to the previous season. According to the USDA Export Inspections Report, released on April 3, the US shipped 1.1 million tonnes of corn in the week between March 24 and 30. This number represents an increase of 409,300 tonnes (59.5%) in the weekly comparison, but a contraction of 442,900 tonnes (-28.7%) in relation to the same week of 2022. As a result, cumulative shipments figure advanced to 19.4 million tonnes, but the deficit developed from last season also widened to 11.2 million tonnes from 10.9 million a week earlier.

USDA releases its first 2023/24 US crop progress report. Last Monday (3), the USDA reported that corn planting in the US had reached 2% by April 2, in line with last year's figures and the five-year average. As is often the case, most of the progress of the US crop this early in the season can be seen in Texas. Planting in the state totaled 57%, against 54% in 2022 and a five-year average of also 54%.

Ethanol production in the US shows stability in the weekly comparison. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US ethanol production remained at 1.003 million barrels per day in the week between March 25 and 31, unchanged in the weekly comparison and 32,000 above the five-year average for the same period.

Flash sales announcement does not surprise the market. Last week, the USDA announced 150,000 tonnes in flash sales to Mexico on Monday (3) with delivery in the 2023/24 season and 125,000 tonnes on Wednesday (5) to an unknown destination and with delivery in 2022/23. However, the market did not seem to pay much attention to the announcement, which gave little support to the grain prices in the week.

Good export sales volume results in a reduced deficit compared to last season. In its Export Sales Report, the USDA reported that US net sales totaled 1.25 million tonnes for the week ended March 30, which was 44,900 tonnes more than a week earlier, 464,200 tonnes more than in the same period of 2022 and 281,800 tonnes above the five-year average. As a result, accumulated sales increased to 37.2 million tonnes, reducing its deficit compared to the 2021/22 season from 17.7 to 17.2 million tonnes.

US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)

Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.

StoneX raises estimate for Brazilian grain crop. StoneX Brazil updated on Monday (3) its grain crop estimate. Regarding the first corn crop for 2022/23, there was an increase in the expected production number to 28.6 million tonnes. With the harvest progress, in states such as Paraná and Santa Catarina, higher yields than previously expected could be seen. The second crop received a slight cut to 100.5 million tonnes, due to the delay in planting in some states. As a result, total production increased to 131.3 million tonnes. On the demand side for Brazilian corn, it is worth noting that there are some factors that should stimulate greater international demand for corn from Brazil, such as the problems faced by the Argentine crop and the unpredictability linked to Ukrainian shipments. As a result, StoneX once again increased its export estimate for the 2022/23 season, by 1 million tonnes, to 48 million.

Argentine crop conditions deteriorate again. The Buenos Aires exchange (BCBA) reported that 7% of Argentine corn crops were in good/excellent condition on April 5, down 2 points in the weekly comparison and 14 points below that recorded in the same week of 2022. The corn harvest in the country reached 10.4%, an increase of 3.4 points. However, the pace remains below that observed last season (17%) and the five-year average (19.5%). The BCBA continues to estimate the country's crop at 36 million tonnes.

SPOT PRICES (USD/60kg-bag)

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