Weekly overview | Corn futures ended the week near stability. The expiration for December/25 was traded at US¢405.25/bu, a slight drop of 0.1%. The stable performance was surprising, in view of the results presented at the beginning of the week by the USDA. The department reinforced the estimate of a record crop in the United States by adding 26.3 mmt to the country's production. The fact, which was the major highlight of the week, sharply pressured the contracts initially, but a recovery was observed in the following days.
Intraday (15 min) Dec/25 contract - CBOT
Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.
WASDE | In last week's update, the USDA made a substantial revision to the American corn crop that was reflected in two areas. First, an average productivity of 11.85 t/ha was estimated, a record level. A positive revision for this variable was already expected: the crop conditions have remained very good since the beginning of the crop, which had already led agents to prepare for this revision. StoneX, for example, estimated productivity at a number close to that released by the department, of 11.81 t/ha. Secondly – and this was the big surprise of this WASDE – we saw a revision to the acreage that resulted in an increase of 850 thousand hectares to the corn area in the country. The result was a total production of 425.3 million tonnes for the country, the highest result in history, raising the carryout to 53.8 million tonnes, the highest level since 2018/19.
Still, some uncertainty remains in that ending stocks number. Along with adjustments to highlight the supply, the USDA usually brings better prospects for demand. The estimate of exports was revised to 73 mmt (+5 mmt) in the 2025/26 crop year. Even though the North American export market is sharply competitive, reaching this level will be challenging. Furthermore, the country's domestic consumption also underwent a positive revision, reaching 332.25 mmt (+8.8 mmt).
On the international front, in addition to a downward revision in China’s corn imports, the USDA did not make major changes. The Brazilian production for 2024/25 remains at 132 mmt by the department, a number much lower than local estimates have indicated.
CONAB | In addition to the WASDE, last week was also marked by a revision in CONAB's crop estimates. In the August report, Brazilian corn production was revised to 137 mmt, a level closer but still below the 139.4 mmt estimated by StoneX. With this robust production, CONAB raised the estimate of Brazilian corn exports from 36 to 40 mmt this year.
Exports continue to be monitored with caution. Although the harvest of a large safrinha tends to deliver large exportable surpluses, shipments in July were 1 mmt behind last year – and the results of the first week of August also indicate a slowdown in exports. Brazilian corn continues to be less competitive on the international market. However, even with strengthened domestic consumption, exports should be a way to adjust the internal balance in the face of this enormous supply coming from the fields. Thus, a more significant gain in traction of shipments in the coming weeks is not ruled out, if logistical conditions allow.
