Corn ends the week under pressure from larger U.S. stocks
- Bullish
- Robust global consumption;
- USDA projects smaller 2025/26 global ending stocks;
- Strengthened U.S. exports;
- Slow selling in Brazil and firm domestic consumption.
- Bearish
- Brazil’s second-crop (safrinha) corn harvest wrapping up;
- Record crop in the United States;
- Larger stocks in the United States.
Weekly Summary | Corn futures traded in Chicago ended the week slightly lower, mainly in response to a U.S. stocks report that came in above market expectations. The report was the last major market driver released before the start of the U.S. government’s “non-essential” shutdown while a budget impasse in Congress remains unresolved. Because of this, we should not see the October WASDE, and the weekly export sales reports are also suspended.
Intraday (15 min) Dec/25 contract – CBOT
Source: CBOT. Compiled by StoneX.
Stocks report | As noted, the stocks report was quite bearish for corn. Final stocks were reported at 38.91 million tonnes, above the market’s average estimate of 33.96 million tonnes. The sense that USDA will have to raise 2024/25 yield assumptions to account for this surplus contributed to the declines on the CBOT. A revision to feed use is also on the horizon, which would further reinforce the market’s bearish tone.
The fact is that the U.S. is entering the 2025/26 season with more corn than expected, and coupled with prospects for yet another record crop, Chicago prices are likely to remain under pressure.
StoneX U.S. estimates | Last week, StoneX published its third U.S. crop estimate. Results pointed to productivity of 11.67 t/ha. Although slightly below the September estimate (11.73 t/ha), the projection still indicates excellent outcomes.
StoneX’s Chief Commodities Economist, Arlan Suderman, has repeatedly emphasized that big crops get smaller as harvest progresses—something we have observed since August. Even so, U.S. fields continue to show strong potential for good yields despite isolated issues in the final stages of the season.
Intraday (15 min) Sep/25 contract – B3
Source: B3. Compiled by StoneX.
Brazil | Later this Monday we will have the official Brazilian corn export data for September. In any case, we saw a faster pace at Brazilian ports in recent weeks, which should make September a month of solid exports.
The stronger shipment pace comes despite Brazil’s reduced international competitiveness, with fiercer competition not only from U.S. Gulf corn but also from recently cheaper Ukrainian corn.
On B3, corn ended the week trading at R$66.00/bag (-0.3%). In addition to declines on international markets, Brazil’s physical market also retreated, which added pressure to B3.
Summer-crop planting progressed well over the past week, reaching 31.7%. Soybean planting is also advancing, which improves expectations for next year’s second-crop (safrinha) corn.
Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)
Source: CME. Compiled by StoneX.
Futures contracts traded on B3 (BRL/bag)
Source: B3. Compiled by StoneX.
Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)
Source: StoneX.
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