Chicago posts gains in a week marked by a holiday; in Brazil, StoneX revises its projections for the corn crop
- Bullish
- Strong global consumption;
- USDA projects lower global stocks for the 2025/26 harvest;
- Exports remain strong in the United States;
- Ethanol production is robust in the U.S.;
- Outlook for reduced planted area in the U.S. in 2026;
- Weather risks in Brazil.
- Bearish
- Expansion of planted area for the 2025/26 crop in Brazil;
- Robust crop in the United States;
- Higher ending stocks in the United States.
CBOT
Corn futures experienced a week of lower liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on Thursday (27). Nonetheless, contracts performed well, with gains of 2.3% for the March/26 maturity, closing at US¢447.75/bu.
Intraday (15 min) December/25 contract - CBOT
Source: CBOT. Prepared by StoneX.
The market is yet to see updated data on U.S. exports, as the USDA continues retroactively republishing missing reports from the shutdown period between early October and mid-November. However, data for the week ending October 16 was surprising, with 2.8 million tonnes sold. The impact on the market was marginal, as the delay in publication reduced the relevance of the data. Nevertheless, it supports the view of a strong export program in the U.S., which has been an important factor underpinning recent price levels in Chicago.
While the strong competitiveness of U.S. corn has provided support to prices, American producers may face a less attractive corn year in 2026. Amidst high input costs and a relative appreciation of soybeans in recent weeks, sources at StoneX suggest we could see a reduction of 1.0 to 1.4 million hectares in the planted corn area for the next U.S. crop (this year, 39.9 million hectares of corn were planted, according to the USDA's latest figures). However, a shift in price dynamics could significantly alter this outlook in the coming months.
Brazil
The Brazilian corn market performed well last week, with a 3.4% appreciation in the March contract, which closed at R$74.95 per bag. Gains in Chicago were amplified by a weaker Brazilian real.
Intraday (15 min) January/26 contract - B3
Source: B3. Prepared by StoneX.
Additionally, attention is focused on the domestic corn balance for the coming year. While the first crop is progressing well, total production for the year is expected to be lower than initially anticipated due to weather challenges in Brazil's Center-West region.
According to StoneX estimates published Monday morning, the first crop was revised upward by approximately 500,000 tonnes, with Rio Grande do Sul standing out positively in productivity revisions, while Pará and Tocantins saw positive revisions in planted area due to later sowing. However, this increase in production is offset by reductions in both planted area and productivity for Mato Grosso's second crop. The state has faced localized droughts, which are impacting the soybean cycle and may negatively affect the planting timeframe of the second corn crop. As a result, the second crop harvest is expected to reach 105.8 million tonnes (1.2 million less than November's estimate). This points to a tighter balance for Brazil's 2025/26 harvest, especially in a scenario of strong domestic consumption.
StoneX's new crop estimate can be accessed here.
Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)
Source: CME. Prepared by StoneX.
Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/sc)
Source: B3. Prepared by StoneX.
Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)
Source: StoneX.
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