Corn declines on CBOT; USDBRL movement boosts futures on B3, closing the week higher; StoneX revises estimates for the 25/26 crop
- Bullish
- Strong global consumption;
- Exports remain strong in the United States;
- Smaller planted area expected in the U.S. for 2026;
- Robust Brazilian consumption.
- Bearish
- Expansion of planted area in Brazil for 2025/26;
- Record productivity in the U.S.;
- Higher ending stocks in the United States;
- Potential downward revision for U.S. corn consumption.
CBOT
Corn futures on CBOT ended last week with a slight decline. Despite bearish fundamentals, the weekly movement was less influenced by specifics of the corn market and more tied to the intensification of capital flows throughout the week. A notable highlight was the significant liquidation in the precious metals market, with sharp declines in gold and silver, which underwent a substantial correction last Friday.
The trigger for this drop, according to various analysts, was U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warth as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Warth’s previously rigid stance on inflation reduced fears of political intervention in the future direction of U.S. interest rates. This renewed confidence in sound monetary policy boosted trust in the strength of the U.S. dollar as the dominant currency, weakening one of the key factors supporting the rise of metal commodities in recent months.
Technical factors, however, kept the corn market steady within the US¢425/bu-US¢430/bu range. March 2026 contracts closed the week at US¢428.25/bu (-0.5%).
Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - CBOT
Source: CBOT. Prepared by: StoneX.
Ethanol | U.S.
Speaking in Clive, Iowa, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his support for allowing year-round sales of gasoline with a 15% ethanol blend (E15).
The official explanation for restricting E15 sales during certain periods of the year (specifically between June 1 and September 15) stems from a regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), aimed at preventing the sale of fuel with higher volatility levels to reduce smog, a specific type of air pollution. Alternative explanations suggest the measure is designed to favor the oil industry by promoting fuel with higher fossil content during peak light fuel consumption periods (driving season).
Trump’s announcement is significant for the corn market, as the robust harvests of recent years need a destination to balance the market. However, legislative progress on this issue will not immediately affect market dynamics, which is reflected in the lack of price movement following the president's statements. Expanding ethanol consumption in the U.S. would require adjustments at gas stations and fuel pump infrastructure, as well as increased corn distillation capacity—a prospect not currently on the horizon. Even if the announcement spurred plans to build new corn ethanol plants in the U.S., it would take time for them to become operational, limiting the immediate impact on domestic corn consumption.
Argentina
The Argentine harvest continues to deteriorate. Last week, crops rated good/excellent dropped to 46%. Although far below the 88% achieved in December, the harvest still appears better than last year, when only 28% of crops were in top developmental condition.
Several climate models indicate better-distributed rainfall over the coming weeks could improve the harvest. However, high temperatures are expected to persist, remaining a key concern.
Brazil
The Brazilian harvest is progressing well. Strong development of first-crop fields in Paraná and the MATOPIBA region contributed to a 2.3% upward revision in StoneX’s summer crop estimates, now projected at 26.6 million tonnes. For the second crop, while planting is still underway in key states, an increase in planted area in Pará and Tocantins more than offset downward revisions in Maranhão and Piauí, raising second-crop harvest expectations to 106.4 million tonnes.
Access the full report here.
In addition to a more positive balance due to the strong harvest expected this year, the continued strengthening of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar has kept domestic prices under pressure. At this point, low corn prices from the U.S. and Argentina in the export market have hindered the competitiveness of Brazilian corn internationally, further adding to short-term pressure in the domestic market.
Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - B3
Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.
Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)
Source: CME. Prepared by: StoneX.
Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/bag)
Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.
Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60 kg bag)
Source: StoneX.
INDICATORS
