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Daily Coffee Report - 05/10/2024

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures End with Little Change

 

Arabica futures at the New York ICE exchange settled slightly lower on Friday.  Activity was driven mostly from operators concentrated on squaring books ahead of the expiration of the June options. The contract with most of the activity for July delivery settled 30 points lower at 201.15 cents a pound. Volume reached 43,640 lots including 11,729 switches. The nearby July -September switch weakened 25 points to 1.20 cents, as risk appetite declined. Profit taking and risk reducing action caused some volatility to the prices. Commercial activity was limited today. Open interest decline 1,285 lots as of yesterday, evidencing the recent short covering. During the week, Arabica futures gained 40 points, however despite the small advance, a good bounce from an important support area at 190 and the weekly reversal could shift the near-term trend signaling a base formation pattern. Fundamentally, the weather in Vietnam remains as a main factor affecting coffee prices. According with latest reports, 40% of the coffee trees in Dak Lak, which represent one third of the coffee production, haven’t received enough water, and the province this month has received precipitations 50 % lower than same period last year. Cert stocks increased by 12,255 bags to 711,871 bags. Pending grading down 11,705 bags to 94,734. Graded today 14,770 bags. Passed 12,255 (10,880 BR, 1,375 HO); failed 2,515 (2,240 BR, 275 HO). During the week the stocks increased by 22,693 bags.

COT (CIT) Non-commercials decreased their long position by 7,591 lots to 61,211 lots long and decreased their short position by 1,958 lots to 17,868 lots short, with a net long position of 43,343 lots in the week to May 7th.

Robusta July contract settled at $3,440 +1 with a 3484/3410 range. The market ended the week relatively quietly with the most active contract Jul24 trading only 6,366 lots today. The lack of commercial & speculative activity at the back end of this week has contributed to this price action. Fundamentals continue to be the main supportive influence. Government data showed that Vietnam exported 152,073 metric tons of coffee in April, a decrease of 19.5% from previous month. The question remains does this reflect a lack of demand or that supplies remains tight. Differentials have softened since then as we await to see if this allows for more coffee to flow helping answer this question. Dry conditions in Vietnam persist. The arb closed $44.86c. continuing to probe the recent 49c high.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 5.1564 +0.28%

USDCOP 3888.9 -0.03%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

43,640

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

12,371

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

291

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

  • Coffee

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