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Daily Coffee Report - 07/15/25

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Settled Lower

 
  • StoneX Coffee Team
  • Market Intelligence

Arabica coffee futures continued to show weakness, closing at 297.35, down 1.49% on the day. The broader trend remains bearish, but price action suggests a possible short-term recovery underway after finding support near 280. Technically, the contract is trading just below its 20-day EMA (304.13) and remains well below the 50-day EMA (320.10), indicating the overall trend is still under pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved to 46.08, moving out of oversold territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator is rising from 26.66, hinting at a potential momentum shift. Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow, and prices are testing the middle band, signaling a possible consolidation phase. However, resistance at 320–327 will need to be cleared for a stronger bullish reversal. Volatility remains moderate, with an ATR of 12.38. Volume has not yet confirmed a breakout, suggesting traders remain cautious.

Robusta futures posted another sharp loss, falling 3.15% to close at 3408, as the contract continues to trade deep within a sustained downtrend. While the market found temporary support at 3262 (just above the lower Bollinger Band), it remains well below its key moving averages — with the 20-day EMA at 3488 and the 50-day EMA at 3656. This keeps the broader bias bearish. The RSI has ticked up to 39.35, showing signs of technical stabilization, and the Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from extreme lows, now reading 34.11. A rise in volume above 40,000 contracts could suggest early buying interest, though the trend remains vulnerable. The ATR at 181.86 underscores elevated volatility. To signal a true reversal, prices would need to reclaim 3500 and sustain above the short-term moving averages. Until then, downside risks remain dominant.

Arabica Coffee: Harvest progress has reached 62.9%, indicating steady momentum but still leaving a sizable portion of the crop to be picked.

Robusta Coffee: Harvesting is nearly complete, with 88.8% of the crop gathered, contributing to pressure on Robusta prices due to incoming supply.

The robust harvest pace, particularly for Robusta, is adding downward pressure on futures, while the Arabica crop may still influence price action in coming weeks depending on weather and quality outcomes

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

24,796

ICE Robusta

Volume:

18,117

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

494

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

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