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Daily Coffee Report - 10/24/2023

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Ends Mixed
 
StoneX Coffee Team
 

The New York coffee “C” market closed higher today supported by strong buying from short term speculators. The most active contract for December delivery settled 230 points higher at 168.15 cents a pound. Volumes continue strong reaching 51,063 lots including 13,296 switches. The nearby December / March switch was firming again suggesting a possible supply shortage in the short term, when roasters have to buy to cover the higher demand of the winter season. Although, despite establishing a new high, there is still nervousness amongst traders that the short-term rally will come to a swift end due to overbought conditions. The speculative short covering has been the main fuel for this rise as evidenced by the open interest that continue to decrease. The OI declined additional 3,206 lots to 199,196 lots as of yesterday. In the weather front, rainfall in Brazil has been beneficial to the flowering and early stages. A first wave of estimates should begin circulating in the coming weeks. Latin American currencies recovered today as the risk sentiment improved across the region. The real of Brazil gained 0.2% to BRL 5.012, and the Colombian peso 0.1% to COP 4,217.50. Commodities were mostly lower today. Brent Crude Oil fell $1.76 or a 1,9% to $88.07 as western countries intensified effort to prevent the Israel-Hamas war to spread.

Robusta Jan24 contract settled at $2493 -33 with a 2534/2483 range. Market cooled off after 8 consecutive up days. Largely down to speculative arb buying and origin selling being more prominent. The structure also weakened on light volume with Nov/Jan trading 3k lots between 98/123 and Jan/Mar seeing 4.4k lots go through between 51/74. Robusta Jan24 2550/2375 putspread vs 2525Δ24 traded 1500x @ 76, Robusta Jan24 2500 call traded 1500x @ 105.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 5.0021 -0.21%

USDCOP 4216.7 +0.02%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

51,063

ICE Robusta

Volume:

32,227

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

503

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
 
 
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