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Daily Coffee Report - 12/13/2023

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Extends Rally
 
StoneX Coffee Team
 

Arabica coffee futures for March delivery settled 340 points or 1.83% higher at 188.65 cents a pound.  The market continues to be supported by increasing weather concerns in Brazil, with the most recent forecasts show lower probabilities of rainfall. An early rally made prices to hit a seven-month high of 191.95 cents. The strong technical action attracted spec buying as the market exceeded the resistance of 188.50, giving the market potential to move up to April’s highs near the 198 level.  A firm structure added the bullish sentiment. The March/May switch gained premium trading at +4.00 cents during the session as good spec buying forced commercials rolls as well. According with recent reports, some Robusta producing areas in Brazil have been affected by the lack of rains and hot temperatures. The vegetation health index is worse than last year as reported by the NOAA. Bahia and Espiritu Santo and some areas west of Minas show a worrying situation. Cert stocks were unchanged at 240,974 bags. A total of 2,670 bags were added to the pending grading for a total of 23,374 bags. The dollar eased ahead of the FED interest rate decision, helping the Brazil and Colombia currencies.

Robusta Mar24 contract settled at $2769 +45 with a 2810/2696 range. Market continues higher as shorts come under pressure from further commercial and speculative buying into virtually zero origin selling to absorb. Much higher volumes traded on today’s session 17k lots traded on the Mar24 contract alone. Structure was mixed with Jan/mar weaking a touch to +33 and Mar/May rallying trading 45/59 range on 3.8k lots. Robusta CSO Jan24/Mar 20 put traded 3050x @ 7, Robusta Jan24 2550/2700 callspread vs 2755Δ27 traded 1000x @ 117, Robusta CSO Jan24/Mar 40 call traded 750x @ 9.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.9307 -0.66%

USDCOP 3979.0 -0.25%

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

55,112

ICE Robusta

Volume:

34,956

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

811

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
 
 
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