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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-11-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 87638
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 87640
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Natural gas prices have been volatile this week in response to inconsistent weather forecasts, fluctuating demand expectations and spec trading.  After surging higher on Tuesday, spot month gas prices settled 5% lower Wednesday as forecasts showed cold weather moderating later this month, casting doubt on the duration of the ensuing cold.  Feb futures settled 15.1 cents lower at $3.039.

image 87642
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Colder weather has already begun to cause oil and gas wells and pipes to freeze in the Rockies and Bakken shale.  Forecasts for below zero temps across West TX next week could result in production freeze offs across the Permian as well.

Output this morning is estimated at 101.3 BCF, 0.5 BCF/day higher than yesterday. 

image 87643
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Estimates for the week ended Jan 5 call for a pull of 119 BCF, which compares to last year’s draw of just 23 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 89 BCF. If estimates are on par, stocks could fall from 3.476 TCF to 2.973 TCF while dropping the 5 yr avg surplus from 13% to about 10%.  

The massive storage surplus is likely to taper substantially over the coming weeks as cold weather prompts a strong increase in heating needs. Projections for the week in progress suggest a draw of 163 BCF which compares to last year’s pull of 68 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of just 33 BCF. This could be followed by a draw of more than 300 BCF for the week ending Jan 19. 

​​image 87644
Source: NOAA
Over the next week, arctic air will descend into the West Coast, Rockies, Central Plains and northern TX, leaving temps at the coldest so far this season.  The period from Jan 14-18 is projected to yield a total of 199 HDDs.  The arctic block is expected to break down around Jan 21, giving way to warmer temps.  
Golden Spread is expected to start flowing feedgas to liquefaction facilities come late Sept.  Train 1 could now load its first cargo by year end as opposed to Q1 of 2025.
Prices are trading lower this morning ahead of storage data.
 
Technical Analysis
image 87645
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The February 24 natural gas contract traded back lower on Wednesday following 4-consecutive higher closes which topped at a 4-week high of 3.392 on Tuesday.

In Wednesday’s trade, the February contract was heavily sold on volume of 258,013 contracts settling at 3.039, down .151 (4.7%).

A bearish inside range day was posted on Tuesday but will need to see follow through selling today for confirmation.

Former breakout resistance at 2.935-2.950 is being tested as support on early weakness today.

If support is broken, the 10 day moving average at 2.820 will become the next area of resistance.

If 2.935-2.950 support holds, prices could quickly swing back higher.

3.392 is weekly high resistance followed by the 88% retracement of the October-December downtrend at 3.465.

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 58.96

Seasonal Prices
image 87649
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87647
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87648
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87374
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87372
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 87646
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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