

Despite expectations for another massive pull from storage last week, natural gas prices traded lower Tuesday. Profit taking occurred as the market’s focus appeared to be on the likelihood of warmer conditions come February. Lower freeze offs than expected also contributed to the downside. Feb NG settled 19.2 cents lower at $3.756.

Feedgas demand has been impacted by the cold with flows weakening yesterday to 12.9 BCF/day. Tuesday’s decline was largely influenced by Freeport LNG with operations offline there due to intermittent power disruptions. Smaller declines were reported at Cove Point while loadings were delayed at some US facilities.
Freeport has reportedly resumed normal operations today. Total flows as of this morning are up 0.5 BCF/day at 13.4 BCF.
Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show a withdrawal of 241 BCF for the week ended Jan 17. This would largely outpace the 5 yr avg draw of 167 BCF but would fall below last year’s pull of 277 BCF. If correct, the 5 yr avg surplus would fall to just 3 BCF from the current 77 BCF.
Another monstrous withdrawal is expected for the week in progress. Estimates suggest a draw of about 360 BCF, which would be the largest draw on record. The current withdrawal record is 359 BCF for the week ended Jan 5, 2018.

Prices are currently trading higher as extreme cold remains in place across much of the US. Overnight forecasts trended slightly warmer for the last few days of January but additional HDDs were added for the start of February.
Technical Analysis

After losing .118 in Monday’s session, the February 25 natural gas contract was down an additional .074 on Tuesday settling the day at 3.756.
The bearish dark cloud cover candlestick which formed last week on the weekly chart may have been confirmed with lower trade this week.
A second day settle under the 10 day moving average on Tuesday is a bearish technical signal heading into today’s session.
Bearish divergences (new price high, lower index high) have also formed on the short term trend following index and the daily RSI index.
The 40 day moving average currently at 3.550 is the next area of support for the February contract. The last time the spot contract closed under the 40 day average was on Oct. 29th when the market was trading at the 2.200 level.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.925 today. A rally back over the 10 day average will renew the bullish uptrend turning last week’s 4.369 high into primary resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -51.98






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