

Spot month gas prices lost momentum on Friday following a storage withdrawal on the lighter side of expectations while the 15 day outlook trended slightly warmer. The spot month contract plunged more than 8%, even as gas flows to LNG plants hit near record high levels while EU prices soared. The Feb contract fell 30.6 cents lower to settle at $3.354, marking the biggest daily percentage drop since Oct 28. For the week, the contract declined about 5%.

The EIA reported a smaller than expected withdrawal of 116 BCF for the week ended Dec 27, leaving total stocks at 3.413 TCF. The number was still supportive by historical standards with the 5 yr avg surplus narrowing to 154 BCF while the year over year deficit fell to 67 BCF.
Milder temps last week are expected to result in a much smaller withdrawal in this week’s report with estimates calling for a pull between 13 and 33 BCF. The following 2 weeks could potentially see triple digit withdrawals of more than 200 BCF given much colder conditions, which would wipe out the lingering surplus.
Total demand continued to surge higher this weekend, estimated today at 154.9 BCF/day, up 8.8 BCF/day from Sunday and about 20 BCF/day higher than Friday’s level. Contributing to the increase is a 4.1 BCF/day rise in power burn, driven by the TX and SE regions, and a 2.9 BCF/day increase in heating demand, which is coming in at 54 BCF/day. LNG feedgas demand has remained at or above 15 BCF/day since Saturday, coming in this morning at 15.3 BCF/day.

Prices have surged higher today with the Feb contract currently up about 7% as winter storms impact the eastern US. Output levels have dropped to 103.3 BCF/day as of this morning after closing the year out at more than 106 BCF/day. The decline is reportedly due to freezing wells and pipes.
Technical Analysis

The February 25 natural gas contract has gapped higher on today’s open following a heavy sell off last week which bottomed just above 40 day moving average support.
The February contract rallied up to a new 2-year high at 4.201 in last Monday’s session. From Monday’s high, the contract sold off during the holiday-shortened week to close Friday at 3.354. For the week, the February contract lost .160 (4.5%).
The February contract gapped higher by .200 on today’s open as it tests daily continuation chart 10 day moving average resistance at 3.680.
Longer term resistance is at 4.000 and last week’s 4.201 high. A breakout above last week’s 4.201 high will turn the November 2014 high at 4.544 into the next area of resistance.
The bottom of the overnight gap at 3.350 extending down to last week’s 3.330 low is near term support.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 54.97






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