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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-9-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 87391
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 87364
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices settled higher Monday on forecasts for extreme cold to settle in this weekend into next week.  Demand levels are expected to rise to record highs as a result.  Feb futures settled 8.7 cents higher at $2.98.

image 87366
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spread between Henry Hub and the TTF contract is narrowing with the TTF contract trading lower on Monday and again this morning. While temps in Europe have fallen below seasonal norms, strong supply and storage levels are helping offset higher demand. EU storage is currently 85% full.  The arrival of 3 LNG cargoes this past weekend is also loosening the balance.  

image 87369
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Arctic cold is set to take ahold of the Interior West and Central US this weekend prior to becoming more focused over the Central and Southern US.  This will be the coldest weather so far this season with temps expected to fall strongly below normal.  The peak of the cold will leave low temps below zero for much of the Midwest.  

Conditions will moderate late in the 6-10 day period across the West with a return to warmer readings from California to the SW.  Below to much below normal temps will linger across the Eastern US through the 3rd week of Jan.

​​image 87368
Source: NOAA
The massive storage surplus is likely to taper substantially over the coming weeks as cold weather prompts a strong increase in heating needs.  Over the next week, heating needs are forecast to average 53 BCF/day, up from today’s estimate of 40.6 BCF.  Res/comm usage will fall back to an average of 47 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. 
Rising demand expectations are supporting prices this morning with the spot month currently up more than 10 cents. 
 
Technical Analysis
image 87371
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Bullish price action in the natural gas market on Monday as the February 24 contract overcame early selling to close the day .090 higher finishing the day at 2.980.

Trend line resistance and the 50% retracement of the October-December downtrend were broken on Monday keeping the market in a 3-week bullish uptrend.

The 61.8% retracement of the October-December downtrend at 3.095 has been reached in today’s trade.  

If 3.095 resistance is broken, the 78% retracement at 3.325 will become the next upside objective.

The 50% retracement broken on Monday is now support at 2.935 with longer term support at 2.725 where the 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged.

Trend following indicators have turned bullish with the short and long term trend following indicators now in a bullish alignment.  The 10 day moving average has also crossed above the 40 day average turning the 10, 40 and 200 day moving averages into a bullish alignment.

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 69.70

Seasonal Prices
image 87383
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87381
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87382
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87374
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87372
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 87392
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing 4 years historical price data distributed into 10 deciles.  All of the years are weighted at 20% with the exception of the most recent year which is weighted at 40%. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI).  

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