

After trading in both positive and negative territory yesterday, front month gas prices settled about unchanged Tuesday. The market factored in a lack of overall demand and the recent decline in LNG exports against expectations for stronger output. Storage levels are also expected to end cooling season near 4 year highs of 3.9 TCF, which continues to keep pressure on the nat gas market. The Nov contract ended down 0.1 cent at $2.311.

Weather continues to disappoint from a demand perspective. Heating demand fell to 11.2 BCF/day Tuesday and is coming in higher this morning, at 14 BCF/day.
LNG feedgas demand also remains unsupportive, coming in this morning at 12.4 BCF/day, 0.5 BCF/day lower than the month to date avg. Flows have been lower to Sabine Pass while a slowdown continued into a 2nd day at Cameron LNG.
Another below normal injection is expected in tomorrow’s report, further narrowing the surplus. Both Platts and Reuters are calling for a build of 60 BCF in the week ended Oct 18, which compares to last year’s build of 81 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 76 BCF. Estimates are based on the supply/demand balance tightening by 5.4 BCF/day last week. Much cooler temps across the Midwest and NE boosted heating demand by more than 6 BCF/day while power sector demand fell by 3.4 BCF/day and LNG feedgas demand rose 1.4 BCF/day. Production fell by 500 MMcf/day for the reporting week.

Forecasts from the NWS are currently projecting two different weather patterns during the 6-10 day period. The western 1/3 of the US will average below normal while the eastern 2/3 of the US will see above to much above normal temps. This trend will continue into the 8-14 day period.
The spot month is currently trading higher while Dec24 thru Cal'25 is lower on the day.

The November 24 natural gas contract closed nearly unchanged on Tuesday settling at 2.311 while consolidating above 200 day moving average support for a third day.
A close under the 200 day moving average at 2.235 will keep the market in a 4-week downtrend turning the 78% retracement of the August-October uptrend at 2.120 into the next area of support.
The 10 day moving average has bearishly crossed under the 40 day average and are primary resistance areas. The 10 day average is at 2.420 followed by the 40 day average at 2.460. A close above both averages will turn the trend back higher.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 40.67






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