

Spot month gas prices climbed higher yesterday, bumping up against resistance at $3.00 but failed to o break through, causing the contract to retreat. Support was driven by the continued slow pace of production while another bullish storage report is anticipated today. Nov futures settled a penny lower at $2.886.

A quickly dwindling storage surplus has proven supportive over the past several weeks with today’s report expected to keep with that trend. The EIA is expected to show another smaller than normal build of 57 BCF for the week ended Sep 27. This falls short of last year’s 87 BCF build and the 5 yr avg build of 98 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 3.549 TCF while the 5 yr avg surplus would drop to 192 BCF, or 5.7%. This is down from the March peak of 678 BCF.
For the week in progress, another undersized build of 76 BCF is expected, 20 BCF lower than the 5 yr avg.
Output remains off its summer highs of 103 BCF/day with production yesterday coming in just shy of 100 BCF/day.
Cooling demand is still very much at play with record heat expected to continue across parts of the West while a low demand pattern is projected from the Midwest to the East. Above normal readings continue across TX, with the next 5 days projected to see the 4th highest level of CDDs.

Prices are pushing higher this morning in anticipation of another supportive injection. The spot month is currently trading 9 cents higher on the day.

The November 24 natural gas contract rallied up to a 3.000 high on Wednesday but for a 3rd consecutive session failed to close above 2.950-3.000 resistance.
After settling Wednesday at 2.886, down .010, the November contract is currently up .051 at 2.937 in today’s early trade.
2.950-3.000 is daily continuation chart trend line resistance, the 200 day moving average on the November 24 daily chart, and the final 88% retracement of the June-July downtrend at 2.990.
A close above 3.000 would be a bullish technical signal turning the June 3.159 high into the next upside resistance.
If 2.950-2.990 resistance holds, weekly low support is at 2.825 followed by the 10 day moving average currently at 2.735.
Daily RSI is at 72.40, an area considered “overbought”.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 72.40 (in overbought area)






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