

Anticipation of colder weather and stronger heating needs over the next week propelled prices during Tuesday’s trade. Stronger feedgas flows along with expiration related position squaring also impacted trade direction. Yesterday’s volatile trading session ended with the Dec contract expiring at $3.431, 6.7 cents higher on the day.

The 5 yr avg surplus is expected to widen for a 6th straight week. Today’s storage report is likely to show a 1 BCF injection however estimates range from an 11 BCF withdrawal to a 9 BCF injection for the week ended Nov 22. The number would be supportive compared to last year’s 5 BCF injection but would be bearish against the 5 yr avg draw of 30 BCF.
A draw of 43 BCF is currently projected for the week in progress which compares to the 5 yr avg pull of 47 BCF and the year ago draw of 81 BCF.
Total demand is estimated this morning at 118.9 BCF/day, down 1.7 BCF/day. This is mostly due to a 1.5 BCF/day decline in heating needs. Heating demand has been trending below the 5 yr avg for much of this season. That is about to change as forecasts for res/comm usage show a surge higher over the coming week amid the arrival of subfreezing temps across the eastern US over the next several days. The 7 day forecast for heating demand is estimated at 43.9 BCF/day, which would exceed the 5 yr avg of 34 BCF/day.

Feedgas flows are down from recent highs with today’s estimate showing feedgas demand 0.3 BCF/daylower, at 13.5 BCF/day.
Month to day, output is averaging 101.6 BCF/day, down 3.3 BCF/day from last year . With colder weather on the way, we could see a further tightening in the market unless producers bring more supply back online. As of this morning, output is estimated at 103.3 BCF/day.
The new spot month Jan contract is currently trading 20 cents lower on the day.

The new front month January 25 natural gas contract is down sharply this morning after closing Tuesday’s session at 3.467, .036 above the price of the expired December 25 contract.
The 2024 high at 3.563 set on last Friday remains primary resistance followed by the November 2023 high at 3.630. Longer term resistance is at 3.990-4.000.
10 day moving average support is at 3.140 today followed by former “breakout” resistance at 3.000-3.020. A drop back under 3.000 could spur fund liquidation.
A breakout above 3.563 will turn the November 2023 high at 3.630 into the next area of resistance. Longer term resistance is at 3.900-4.000.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 61.61






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