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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 11-9-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

The nat gas market extended losses for a 3rd straight session Wednesday as production levels flirt with all time highs while weather outlooks remain mild for much of November. Dec futures settled 3.4 cents lower at 3.106.

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This week’s storage report has been delayed until next week as the EIA updates its systems. The EIA will release 2 weeks’ worth of data next Thursday.  For the week ended Nov 3, stocks are projected to have fallen by 7 BCF.  The week in progress is likely to see a small injection.  

Stocks are projected to reach a 4 year high at the end of March, closing out withdrawal season at 2.025 TCF which would be the highest since 2020.

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A cool shot is expected to sweep through the north and central US tomorrow thru Sunday before warming back up next week.  
Demand levels are coming in higher this morning at 105.2 BCF/day.  The daily increase stems from a 1.4 BCF/day rise in res/comm usage.  Projections for the next week show total demand averaging 107.3 BCF/day while demand during the 8-14 day period is estimated at 104.5 BCF/day.

 

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After trading mixed earlier this morning, the spot month contract is currently down 5 cents as the market tries to assess the storage situation without the help of weekly data. 
Mild weather, strong production and healthy stocks heading into winter are keeping rallies in check.  
Technical Analysis
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The December 23 natural gas contract closed down for a 3rd day this week on Wednesday settling at 3.106 but held above a key area of support.

The support which held near the 3.050 level is the 40 day moving average as well as 6-week trend line support.

If 3.050 support is broken, 7-month trend line support beginning at the mid-April 1.944 low currently near 2.700 will become the next downside objective.

3.180-3.200 is near term resistance followed by the 10 day moving average on the daily continuation chart at 3.320.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 49.53

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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