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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-11-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Prices ended Friday’s session near steady as strong LNG exports offset mild weather and low heating demand expectations.  Jan futures settled 0.4 cent to settle at $2.581.  For the week, the contract fell about 8%, leaving the front month lower for 5 straight weeks. 

Nat gas prices have traded sharply lower today as weather outlooks are now showing much warmer than normal temperatures extending thru late December.  

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Weekend forecasts failed to provide any support with above normal temps and light demand continuing thru basically the end of December.  

Weather desk is showing a continuation of widespread above normal temps through Dec 25.  The 6-10 day period features above normal anomalies across most of the US except for the South where temps will be closer to normal.  The 11-15 day period will also see widespread coverage of above normal readings, including much and strong above normal temps across the Rockies, Plains and Midwest. 

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Further pressure is stemming from near all time highs in output while LNG demand is facing delays. 

After plunging last week by 9.8 BCF/day, or 8%, from the previous week to 112.5 BCF/day, total consumption is actually higher this morning by 6.5 BCF/day at 127.6.  Demand is expected to fall to an average of 124 BCF/day over the next week and average 124.7 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. 

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EU gas prices are also falling on expectations for warmer temps and higher wind generation as well as steady LNG and Norwegian supplies.  The Jan TTF contract is trading at more than 2 month lows. 
Technical Analysis
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The January 24 natural gas contract closed .004 lower on Friday at $2.581.  It was an inside day with a lower close so no real sign of any bottoming action.  For the week, January was down .233 cents, 8% lower.

The big story is a major washout to the downside coming into today.  Prices are down almost .30 cents, breaking below $2.300 and at the lowest levels since June 2023.  There is little in the way of support until the May low near $2.030.  Longer term support sits at $2.315, the 78% retracement of the April-October uptrend.

While weather and higher production are the main drivers for the recent break, today’s action is a classic technical long squeeze with prices down 11%.  In addition, speculative funds tripled their short position, now holding over 33,000 contract short.  Each of the last three reversal moves have come after the spec funds reversed their long/short positions.  Watch for price action tomorrow and Wednesday to see if follow-thru selling emerges.

The 200 day moving average at 2.620 held any upside breakout for most of last week.  Little resistance comes in until the December 7th low at $2.489.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 31.75

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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