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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-12-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251212063710-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

The nat gas selloff extended into Thursday’s trade as updated forecasts pointed to significantly warmer conditions for the latter half of December. Even a bullish storage report showing a draw that exceeded expectations and narrowed the 5 yr avg surplus by 88 BCF failed to reverse the downward momentum. The January contract settled 36.4 cents lower at $4.231.

After another cold blast this weekend, temps are forecast to turn markedly milder next week. The NWS projects above normal readings to dominate much of the country from Dec. 16–24, with the highest probabilities for warmth concentrated across the South. This warmer shift is expected to shave heating demand by more than 12 BCF/d from current levels.

image 123866

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The EIA reported the season’s first triple digit withdrawal, with stocks down 177 BCF for the week ended Dec 5.  The draw was 10 BCF above the average estimate and larger than both last year and the 5 yr avg pulls. Inventories now stand at 3.746 TCF, 103 BCF above the 5 yr avg, its lowest level since May 23. The year over year deficit widened to 28 BCF. Res/comm demand surged 16.3 BCF/d last week, while power sector consumption climbed more than 5 BCF/d. Another hefty draw is expected for the current week, with estimates as high as 192 BCF.

image 123867

Source: StoneX

Production has remained rangebound this week, holding between 107.3 and 108 BCF/d. Month to date, output is averaging 107.7 BCF/d, up 3.4 BCF/d from last year.

Robust supply continues to help offset strong LNG feedgas demand, which is currently at 18.7 BCF/d.

image 123868Source: NOAA

Selling pressure persists this morning as the market shrugs off yesterday’s hefty withdrawal, keeping its focus on forecasts for exceptionally mild weather over the next two weeks.

image-20251212063808-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The January 26 natural gas contract has lost 1.058 (20%) over the past 4 sessions including a .364 (7.9%) loss on Thursday closing the day at 4.231.

The January contract closed just under 40 day moving average support at 4.270 on Thursday turning 4.000 and the top of an open gap created during expiration of the December 25 contract at 3.790 into the next areas of support.

To close the gap, the January contract will need to trade down to 3.570 which is currently the 200 day moving average on the daily continuation chart.

60-minute chart trend following indicators are very oversold which likely points to a short-covering rally ahead of the weekend.

The 40-day moving average at 4.270 is near term resistance followed by 4.450-4.460.

Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 43.29

image 123870

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123872

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123871

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123292

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 123869

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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