

The nat gas market extended Friday’s 17.5 cent decline to start the week. Spot month gas prices pushed lower Monday as strong production and bearish end of year weather outlooks overshadowed supportive LNG feedgas demand. The Jan contract ended 6.6 cents lower at $3.214.

Plaquemines LNG began production on the first of 18 liquefaction blocks over the weekend. Feedgas deliveries to Plaquemines reached 164 MMcf on Friday, or about 8% of pipeline capacity, while deliveries were back down yesterday to 49.4 MMcf as the plant continued starting up. Total LNG flows yesterday were pegged at 14 BCF/day and are estimated this morning at 14.1 BCF/day.
A round of cold is expected to arrive later this week into early next week, causing widespread much to strong below normal temps from the Midwest to the East. Cold will linger thru mid period followed by a significant warming trend. Persistent warmth is expected across the West for the latter half of Dec with highs reaching toward record levels.
Due to the upcoming round of cold, heating demand for the next 7 days is expected to average 41.5 BCF/day. Warmer conditions will weigh on demand during the 8-14 day period, with heating demand projections at 33.6 BCF/day. Res/comm demand is currently at 32.8 BCF/day.

Prices are trading lower again this morning as weather outlooks for late December continue to show significant warmth across the entire country.

The January 25 natural gas contract gapped .070 lower from Friday’s 3.280 close to begin the new week of trade on Monday.
The January contract held in a fairly narrow .112 range on Monday closing the day at 3.214, just above 10 day moving average support.
Monday’s gap has been closed in today’s early trade with 10 day moving average support at 3.205 today.
If 10 day moving average support is broken, former trend line resistance and the 40 day moving average at the 2.950-2.970 area will become the next area of support.
A close under 2.950 will trigger a bearish double top reversal turning 2.400-2.450 into the downside measuring objective for completion of the pattern.
3.559-3.563 remains primary resistance. If broken, the double top reversal will be negated turning the November 2023 high at 3.630 into the next area of resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 53.18






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