

Following early session losses yesterday, nat gas prices surged higher midday as forecasts hinted at additional near term HDDs while LNG feedgas demand remained above 14 BCF/day. Aside from a brief cold snap this weekend into early next week, forecasts still remain exceptionally warm across the US during the 11-15 day period. The Jan contract settled 9.4 cents higher at $3.308, about 20 cents higher than its intraday low.

Tomorrow’s storage report is expected to show another larger than average draw of 122 BCF. A pull this size would be substantially lower than the previous draw of 190 BCF but would exceed both last year and the 5 yr avg comparisons of 78 BCF and 92 BCF, respectively. If correct, the year over year surplus would decline to just 23 BCF while the 5 yr avg surplus would fall to 135 BCF. Early estimates for next week’s report covering the week ending Dec 20 call for a withdrawal of 130 BCF.
Production levels this month are averaging 103.5 BCF/day, down 1.5 BCF/day from last year but up from November’s lows below 99 BCF/day. Yesterday’s output was estimated at 104.1 BCF/day with output pegged this morning at 103.6 BCF/day. Year to date, output is trailing 2023 by just 0.4 BCF/day.

The market is extending yesterday’s gains this morning as LNG feedgas demand remains above 14 BCF/day, coming in this morning at 14.3 BCF/day. Flows at Plaquemines yesterday were estimated at 300 MMcf/day.
Further price volatility is likely as daily heating demand levels will greatly fluctuate over the next 2 weeks.

A bullish reversal in the natural gas market on Tuesday following two days of heavy selling.
After falling by .468 (13.1%) from last Thursday’s 3.559 high down to Tuesday’s 3.091 low, buyers came in late-Tuesday to rally the market back higher.
By Tuesday’s close, the January contract had gained .094 to settle the day at 3.308 while also closing back over the 10 day moving average.
Early buying today has rallied the January contract above Tuesday’s 3.394 high turning the 3.559-3.563 double top into the next area of resistance.
If double top resistance is broken, the November 2023 high at 3.630 will become the next upside resistance.
If double top resistance holds, 10 day moving average support is at 3.255 today followed by 2.950-2.980 which is both former trend line resistance and the 40 day moving average.
If 2.950 support is broken, the double top reversal will be triggered turning 2.400-2.450 into the downside measuring objective for completion of the pattern.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 59.48






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