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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 2-1-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Prices are seeing a reprieve this morning after rising 6 of the past 7 sessions.  Yesterday’s session saw a 5.1% gain, leaving the monthly increase for Jan at more than 30%.

Recent gains stemmed from colder conditions that have boosted demand while pulling down storage levels.  The possibility that Russia could cut gas supplies to Europe has added further support.

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Helping fuel losses this morning are an increase in Russian supplies to Europe, which pushed European prices sharply lower overnight. 

Further pressure overseas is stemming from warmer than normal weather in the UK and NE Europe. 

 

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Demand levels in the US have fallen more than 27 BCF since last Wed.  Demand this morning is coming in 6.7 BCF/day lower at 119 BCF/day as temps warm across most regions.  Res/comm usage is making up 6 BCF of today’s decline.

Demand over the coming week is expected to average 134.8 BCF/day and will fall to 122.6 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.  

The NWS 8-14 day period is seeing a significant scale back in below normal readings.  

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Fundamentals are turning less bullish while technicals are neutral to bullish.

 

Technical Analysis
 
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The March 22 natural gas contract has closed up 5 consecutive days gaining .235 (5%) on Monday to settle at 4.874.

Over the past 5 days, the March contract has gained 1.275 or 34% while retracing 60% of the losses made from the October-December downtrend.

Monday’s 5.057 high extending up to the 61.8% retracement at 5.095 is primary resistance.  If broken, the 78% retracement at 5.535 will become the next upside resistance.

The seasonal trend favors renewed weakness once the current rally tops but trend following indicators remain in a very bullish alignment.

 options table & Strip Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
 
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