

The spot month contract has settled higher for the past 7 sessions, gaining more than 29%. This marks the longest winning streak since Jan 31, 2022. Prices pushed higher yesterday as arctic air enveloped across the entire eastern 2/3 of the US, causing a demand surge. Record high exports and expectations for strong withdrawals ahead added further support. The March contract rose 27.3 cents, settling at $4.28. Month to date, the contract is up 40%.

Storage data is expected to show a substantial widening of the surplus in today’s report. Estimates suggest a withdrawal of 188 BCF, more than triple last year’s draw of 58 BCF and 25% higher than the 5 yr avg pull of 145 BCF.
With heating demand expected to remain elevated into the weekend, above normal withdrawals should continue through late Feb. Withdrawal estimates for the week ending Feb 21 range from 255 to 275 BCF, which compares to last year’s draw of 86 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 141 BCF.
A significant warm up is expected Sunday into next week with temps rising 30 to 50 degrees from current levels across the Rockies, Plains and Midwest. Temps in the South and East will warm between 15 and 30 degrees. The warm up however may be short lived with colder temps returning in early March.
Maxar’s outlook for March remains unchanged with above normal temps expected across the South, Midwest and East. A total of 590 HDDs are projected which is close to normal but would prove colder than last year.

Prices have pulled back this morning on easing demand. After rising to 172.9 BCF/day yesterday, total demand is lower this morning by 3.1 BCF/day. The decline stems mostly from res/comm usage falling 2.1 BCF/day. Heating demand over the next week is seen falling back towards 40 BCF/day, nearly 20 BCF/day lower than today’s estimate of 59.1 BCF/day.
Production levels are coming in 0.5 BCF lower than yesterday at 102 BCF/day.
Technical Analysis

After gaining .282 (7.6%) in Tuesday’s session, the March 25 natural gas contract was up an additional .273 (6.8%) on Wednesday closing the day at 4.280.
The March contract spiked up to a new 2-year high at 4.476 in today’s early trade but is currently down .120+ near 4.155.
Volume on Wednesday was the highest of 2025 registering 338,827 contracts.
While prices remain elevated, the trend could continue higher near term. The 4.476 overnight high extending up to the November 2014 high at 4.544 is primary resistance.
If 4.544 resistance is broken, the November 2018 high at 4.929 will become the next area of resistance.
4.000 is near term support followed by 3.690-3.700 where the 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -61.86






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