

Mar NG rolled off the board yesterday with a loss of 17.1 cents, settling at $3.959. The market seemed to be looking past today’s storage report, focusing instead on the impact of mild weather as we head into March. Weather driven demand has plunged this week, falling to 28.9 BCF/day on Tuesday while production continues its uptrend. With April now the spot month, more springlike demand is in focus.

Today’s storage report is expected to show a historic drawdown of 266 BCF for the week ended Feb 21. If correct, stocks would total 1.835 TCF, pushing supplies into a dee[er deficit. Today’s number compares to last year’s draw of 86 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 141 BCF. Gas demand last week rose 12 BCF/day amid sizable gains in heating needs while output fell 2.5 BCF/day. The market balance overall tightened nearly 12.8 BCF/day.
Next week’s report covering the last week of Feb is expected to show another larger than normal draw between 115 and 165 BCF.
The next several days will remain warmer than normal across the West and Central US while the East Coast will see temps range from normal in the SE to below normal throughout the NE. The 6-10 day period will feature variability across the Midwest and East with temps ranging from above normal to much below normal this weekend into early next week. Heating demand is expected to remain light although slightly higher than current levels of about 30 BCF/day.

LNG feedgas demand is holding near record highs of more than 16 BCF/day. Feedgas demand this morning is estimated at 15.8 BCF/day.
Gas output continues to rebound, rising by 4 BCF/day over the past week towards 105 BCF/day as levels rise in the Permian and Appalachia following freeze offs while Haynesville volumes have also seen a recent surge. Production is estimated this morning at 105.7 BCF/day, up 0.8 BCF/day.
Technical Analysis

Yesterday’s expiring March 25 natural gas contract was well sold throughout the session losing .215 (5.1%) to close the day at 3.956, just under 10 day moving average support.
The new front month April 25 contract is currently down .065 in today’s early trade remaining under 10 day moving average resistance.
The 40 day moving average at 3.725 is the next area of support. If 40 day moving average support is reached and broken, the primary trend will turn back down.
The 10 day moving average at 4.005 is near term resistance followed by 4.212 weekly high resistance. Longer term resistance is last week’s 4.476 high which will likely be the final high for winter 2024-2025.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -53.03






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