

Storage data initially pushed the market lower before the market gained momentum, heading higher into the close. Weather forecasts remained consistent, continuing to indicate a round of colder than normal temps next week across the northern US. Mar NG settled 4.8 cents higher at $3.408.
The EIA reported a storage withdrawal of 174 BCF for the week ended Jan 31, leaving total supplies at 2.397 TCF. The draw was slightly higher than expected but on par with the 5 yr avg. The draw still significantly outpaced last year’s pull of 110 BCF. Last week’s pull left the total drawdown for January at just over 1 TCF, leaving stocks on pace to end heating season in a deficit to the 5 yr avg.

Strong output levels are helping to balance the impact of the approaching cold front and strong LNG export demand. Production is estimated this morning at 105.2 BCF/day. Platts estimates output will average about 104.5 BCF/day over the coming 2 weeks.
Demand levels are coming in 4.3 BCF/day higher this morning as a result of heating demand rising 4.9 BCF/day. A 1 BCF/day decline in power burn and 0.2 BCF/day drop in LNG feedgas demand is helping offset some of that increase.
Persistent cold has been featured this month across the NE and Northern Rockies. This should continue while also expanding into the northern Plains next week. Maxar is projecting a total of 453 HDDs, which is on the high side of normal and colder than last year, which ranked 6th warmest.

The spot month is currently trading lower a few cents lower on the day.
Technical Analysis

The March 25 natural gas contract has closed higher three out of the past four sessions but has failed to clear 10 day moving average resistance.
The March contract was up .048 on Thursday settling at 3.408, just under 10 day moving average resistance.
The primary trend remains down although prices may continue higher near term in an upside correction within a greater downtrend. Once current strength ends, renewed selling is expected.
The 10 day moving average is at 3.355 today followed by 40 day moving average resistance at 3.615. 10 and 40 day moving average alignment is now bearish.
Last week’s 2.990 low remains primary support. This is also the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend.
If 2.990 support is broken, the 61.8% retracement at 2.660 will become the next area of support.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -46.54






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