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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 2-9-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Spot month prices slid 7% yesterday with Mar futures settling at $2.396, down 18.8 cents.  Pressure stemmed from a decline in LNG exports and forecasts for mostly mild weather through late February, suggesting low heating demand.

 

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Storage levels are expected to have fallen by a larger than normal 195 BCF last week as heating demand increased and production briefly declines due to freeze offs.  The estimate exceeds the 5 yr avg draw of 171 BCF but still falls short of last year’s 228 BCF draw.  If correct, total gas in storage would stand at 2.388 TCF.  

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LNG exports have fallen by more than 1 BCF/day over the past 5 days to due mostly to a reduction in feedgas to Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export plant.  LNG feedgas is back up this morning to an estimated 13.1 BCF/day according to Platts.

Offsetting this increase is a 1.7 BCF/day drop in res/comm usage, leaving total demand down 1.2 BCF this morning at 106.7 BCF/day. 

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Prices are currently trading higher this morning.  Aside from supportive storage withdrawal expectations, the latest forecasts continue to show warmer than normal conditions dominating the eastern US.  Any bouts of colder weather are expected to be short lived. 

Technical Analysis
 
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The spot March 23 natural gas contract was heavily sold on Wednesday after reaching 10 day moving average resistance in early trade.  With resistance holding, sellers came back in dropping the March contract to a 2.396 close, down .188 or 7.3%.

Last week’s 2.341 low extending down to 2.325 remains primary support.  If broken, 2.230-2.340 will become the next area of support followed by 2.000.

10 day moving average resistance is at 2.560 today.  There has not been a single daily close above this average since mid-December.

Daily volume was high again on Wednesday at 204,605 contracts, the 3rd time volume has surpassed the 200,000 contract level over the past six sessions.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Relative Strength Index – 29.34 (in oversold area)

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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