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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 2-9-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 89692
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 89694
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Bearish near term fundamentals continue to take center stage despite forecasts calling for the return of winter weather.  Mar24 and Apr24 nat gas contracts maintained levels below $2 in Thursday’s trade amid a rebounding storage surplus, mild weather conditions and rising output. Mar futures settled 5 cents to settle at $1.917. Prices are down about 23% since the start of the year.

image 89696
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Storage levels declined as expected for the week ended Feb 2, falling 75 BCF to 2.584 TCF.  The number came in well below historical comparisons which helped restore the 5 yr avg surplus to 248 BCF and the year over year surplus to 187 BCF.  

The market is expecting to see 2 more weeks of low withdrawals, helping further recover the surplus. Platts is calling for a draw of 79 BCF for the week ending Feb 9 and a draw of 69 BCF for the week ending Feb 16.  The 5 yr averages for these 2 weeks are 149 BCF and 168 BCF, respectively. 

image 89697
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Gas demand so far this month is averaging well below normal at 112 BCF/day. This is nearly 9 BCF/day below the 5 yr avg and much lower than January’s high of 160 BCF/day.  Both res/comm usage and LNG exports have contributed to this month’s decline.  Res/comm usage is averaging 34.7 BCF/day, or 7.1 BCF/day below last year while LNG feedgas is averaging 13.4 BCF/day, or 0.8 BCF/day above last year. Feedgas demand should return back near record levels once Freeport LNG is fully back in service later this month.

​​image 89698
Source: Bloomberg

Prices are moving lower again this morning, trading at 3 yr lows as overnight forecasts show less cold across the Midwest and NE, helping reduce HDD expectations.  

Technical Analysis
image 89699
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The March 24 natural gas contract broke out under a key area of support on Thursday keeping the market in a bearish downtrend.

The support broken was the March 2023 low at 1.944 low with the March contract closing Thursday at 1.917, down .050.

Volume was fairly high at 237,169 contracts but well under the 330,000 contract spike on the mid-December low.  Volume levels typically spike near market highs or lows.

The next support is a trend line from the 60-minute chart drawn under recent lows currently near the 1.700 area.

Former support at 1.944 is now near term resistance followed by 2.000-2.020.  Longer term resistance is the mid-December low at 2.235.

Current weakness should be the final price break before a post-winter seasonal low is set.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 30.54

Seasonal Prices
image 89703
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 89702
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 89701
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 89263
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 89262
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 89700
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing 4 years historical price data distributed into 10 deciles.  All of the years are weighted at 20% with the exception of the most recent year which is weighted at 40%. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI).  

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