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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-11-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 91528
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 91529
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

The spot month contract closed down slightly Friday amid ongoing mild weather and a growing surplus.  Following last week’s report, the surplus to the 5 yr avg is now at 551 BCF.  Weak demand over the coming weeks could enlarge that surplus by another 100 to 150 BCF.  Apr futures settled 1.3 cents lower at $1.805.

image 91530
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Aside from potions of the SW, Maxar is forecasting a continuation of much to strong above normal temps across the country this week.  A pattern change is set to take place during the 6-10 day period, leaving temps below normal in the Interior West, encompassing most of the East mid to late period.

The NWS also shows colder conditions moving into the Midwest and South Central US during the 6-10 day period while their 11-14 day period shows cooler conditions dominating the northern US.  The updated 3-4 week NWS outlook shows warmer than normal conditions across West into the entire northern third of the US.  Parts of the South Central and SE will see temps averaging lower than normal.  

image 91531
Source: EIA/DOE

Energy firms cut oil and gas drilling rigs last week for the first time in 3 weeks.  According to Baker Hughes, gas rigs fell by 4 to 115 rigs while oil rigs fell by 2 to 504 rigs. This is down 38 rigs from last year’s 153 rigs. The current count is the lowest since mid November when drillings rigs fell to 114.  

 

​​image 91534
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Prices are trading lower this morning with the market’s focus on storage levels with the possibility of a small injection for last week.  Forecasts for some cooler weather mid to late March could lend some near term support. 

Technical Analysis
image 91532
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spot April 24 natural gas contract lost .030 in last week’s trade closing Friday at 1.805.

Prices began to weaken on Thursday after holding under the lower-2.000 area as resistance the previous three sessions with the April contract closing under 10 day moving average support on Friday.

A retest of downside support will be an important technical test as to whether a post-winter seasonal low has been set.

Last week’s 1.755 low is near term support followed by 1.720 which is the bottom of an open gap created during expiration of the March 24 contract.

Primary support remains the 1.511 low set two weeks ago.  There is a good chance this will be the post-winter low.

10 day moving average resistance is at 1.840 today (1.841 current high) followed by last week’s 2.009 high.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 43.18

Seasonal Prices
image 91537
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 91536
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 91535
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90381
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 90382
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 91533
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

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