StoneX logo

Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-11-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260311091001-1

ource: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices eased yesterday with pressure stemming from light seasonal demand while a 17% plunge in EU gas prices further weighed on the market.  The April contract settled 10 cents lower at $3.02.  

The NOAA's 6–10 day outlook shows strong warmth taking hold across the West as the East turns colder than normal. Through the 2nd half of March, above normal temps will persist across the West and gradually extend into the East, with only the Northeast expected to remain below normal.
 

Source: NOAA

The EIA cut its 2026 natural gas price outlook by 13% in the latest STEO, citing limited US price impact from reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz.  The revision reflects mild late winter weather, rising production driven largely by increased associated gas output and expectations for higher storage levels in the months ahead. End of winter inventories are now projected at 1.84 TCF, 184 BCF below the agency’s October estimate but still in line with the 5 yr avg.

image 127997

Source: StoneX

The next 2 storage reports are expected to come in lower than normal given the mild start to March. For the week ended Mar 6, a draw of 46 BCF is likely, lower than both the 5yr avg and year ago draws of 64 BCF.  Total demand fell by roughly 12 BCF/d last week, led by a decline of 10 BCF/d in heating load.

Demand has continued to slide this week, raising the potential for an early season injection for the week ending Mar 13.  Withdrawals could resume later this month as another cold spell pushes into the NE and Midcon.   

image 127998Source: StoneX

image-20260311091021-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The April 26 natural gas contract lost .100 on Tuesday closing at 3.020 but held above 10-day moving average support as it appears to be carving out a post-winter seasonal low.

Trend following indicators remain mixed but the push under the 3.000 handle two weeks reaching at 2.775 was short-lived with the April contract for the most part holding above the 3.000 level as support for the past three weeks.

To turn the longer-term trend higher, the spot April contract will need to breakout above 40 and 200 day moving average resistance currently at the 3.570 (200-day average)-3.630 (40-day average) area.
 

The April contract reached at 3.494 high on Monday before selling back off.

10-day moving average support is at 3.005 today.  If broken, 2.880-2.890 and 2.775, the spot contract low for 2026, will become the next areas of support.

Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 46.64

image 127995

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 127994

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 127993

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 126918

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 126917

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 127992

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

  • Energy

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


1. PRECIPICE DISCLAIMER: This communication includes data and analytics supplied by Precipice Analytics. StoneX does not own, control, create, or author this data and has not independently verified its accuracy. StoneX does not endorse its use for anything other than informational purposes. You are advised that Precipice Analytics technology may be protected by intellectual property and other rights that prohibit the unauthorized use and dissemination of the information contained herein.

2. MARKET INDICATOR DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

3. VALUE MATRIX DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 12

June 12 – The ebb and flow of whether we have a deal with Iran or not continues, while Wall Street demonstrates that it wants to believe the positive at a time when earnings reports and much of the economic data point upward, despite some risks. Stock futures pushed higher on that optimism over a possible end to the war with Iran, along with enthusiasm over today’s highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 19, while the dollar index traded near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.48%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. Money generally flowed out of both the energy and food-based commodities overnight on Iran peace prospects. WTI crude oil prices fell to an eight-week low overnight and are now trading near $85 per barrel, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly lower as well.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Oil Prices Are Testing Wall Street's Confidence Again

Rising oil prices are becoming a bigger concern for investors as geopolitical tensions threaten to reignite inflation pressures. The latest developments in the Middle East highlight how energy markets can quickly reshape the outlook for equities and interest rates.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 11

June 11 – Iran-related headlines are again moving the markets this morning, along with more inflation related data that was released. Stock futures are mostly higher to start the day, while the VIX is also elevated to trade near 21. The dollar index is trading near 100.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14% as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten on rising inflation concerns. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower overnight.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.