

Nat gas prices slid more than 8% yesterday on expectations for light weather demand as more springlike conditions make their way into much of the South and North this week. Weather outlooks for the coming 14 days have also turned more bearish this week with much warmer than normal conditions anticipated for the latter half of March. Withdrawal season is also winding down, with talk of a possible injection for the week in progress. April NG settled 36.9 cents lower at $4.084.

Estimates for today's storage report have shifted higher from yesterday. The EIA is expected to show a near normal pull of 54 BCF for the week ended Mar 7. This compares to last year’s pull of 19 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 56 BCF. If correct, stocks would fall 1.706 TCF.
Upcoming storage reports are expected to come in lighter than normal, helping gradually improve deficits. Early estimates for next week’s report range from an injection of 8 BCF to a withdrawal of 29 BCF. This compares to last year’s injection of 5 BCF and the 5 yr avg decline of 31 BCF.
After dipping yesterday to 13.9 BCF/day, feedgas demand is back up to 15.9 BCF/day as of this morning. Feedgas is averaging more than 2 BCF/day higher than last year. According to the EIA, LNG exports will rise 2.3 BCF/day this year and by 2.2 BCF/day in 2026.
Production levels remains healthy near 105 BCF/day. Production growth this year does remain a wildcard as many producers say they will stay in maintenance mode. Big supply increases are thus, not expected to occur this year. The EIA forecasts dry output to rise by 2 BCF/day in 2025 and rise another 2.5 BCF/day in 2026.

Prices are trading lower again this morning as the market continues to factor in bearish weather that will keep a lid on demand. The Apr contract is currently down 9 to 10 cents.
Technical Analysis

The April 25 natural gas contract was heavily sold in Wednesday’s session breaking out under 10 day moving average support to close the day at 4.084, down .369 (8.3%).
Overnight selling has dropped the April contract under the 4.000 handle turning the 40 day moving average at 3.860 into the next area of support.
The 40 day moving average held as support last week which led to a rally up to a new high at 4.901 on Monday. A close under the 40 day average will turn the trend back down.
The 10 day moving average is near term resistance at 4.245 followed by 4.588 weekly high resistance.
There are now bearish divergences (new price high, lower index high) on the daily RSI index and now the short term trend following index.
Funds were net long a hefty 323,000+ contracts in last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report. Fund liquidation could quickly become a negative factor if prices continue lower.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -48.68






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