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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-17-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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fundamentals & weather
Gas prices settled higher Thursday amid financial market gains and a continued ramp up in activity at Freeport.  Over the past 2 days, deliveries to Freeport have averaged 1.4 BCF/day with a continued increase expected over the coming days and weeks. A lower than expected withdrawal helped keep gains limited.  Apr futures settled 7.5 cents higher at $2.514.
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Storage withdrawals once again undershot both expectations and historical comparisons last week.  The EIA reported a draw of 58 BCF for the week ended Mar 10, leaving total stocks at 1.972 TCF, the highest early Mar level since 2020.  Supplies are 378 BCF higher than the 5 yr avg and 521 BCF higher than last year. Season ending supplies are pegged somewhere between 1.8 and 1.9 TCF. 

 

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Prices are lower this morning on higher production, a growing supply surplus and no real weather concerns.  European weather models saw a warmer shift overnight, losing 11 HDDs  due to expectations for a warmer trend over the South and East next week.  Maxar’s outlook noted similar warming trends across the East during the 6-10 day outlook.
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The week in progress is estimated to see a pull between 61 and 80 BCF which compares to last year’s pull of 55 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 45 BCF.  
technical analysis
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The April 23 natural gas contract closed .075 higher on Thursday settling at 2.514 but is down in today’s early trade erasing all of yesterday’s gains.

Weekly low support is at 2.384 extending down to the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend at 2.365.

If 2.365 support is broken, the 78% retracement at 2.195 and the final 88% retracement at 2.095 will become the next areas of support.  If any of the retracement support levels hold, a post-winter low should be in place.

If all retracement support areas are broken, the late-February 1.967 low will become the next area of support.

A breakout above 10 day moving average resistance at 2.530 followed by the 40 day average at 2.615 will turn the trend back up.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 42.69

seasonal prices
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forward curve pricing
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