

Spot month gas prices settled with a loss to the start the week following a volatile trading session. With weather forecasts not proving cool enough to provide support, trade yesterday was focused on the potential for an injection in this week’s storage report. April NG settled 8.6 cents lower at $4.018.

Cheniere has completed the first train of its midscale expansion of Corpus Christi. The train is the first of 7 units included in the Stage 3 expansion, which will add more than 10 mmt/yr of output capacity to the terminal once fully online. Two additional trains are expected to be completed this year with the remaining 4 in 2026. Total production capacity of the plant is estimated at more than 25 mmt/yr.
Feedgas deliveries to Cheniere were about 2.5 BCF/day yesterday with overall feedgas demand at 16.4 BCF/day. Over the next 4 years, feedgas demand is expected to grow by 15 BCF/day from this year’s projected average of 16 BCF/day.
Forecasts yesterday were revised warmer for the Midwest over the next 5 days with the West expected to turn warmer next week. Cooler changes were made to the Eastern US for both the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods with heating degree days forecasts rising by 15.3 HDDs for the coming 2 weeks.
Total demand for today is estimated at 103.7 BCF/day, 5.2 BCF/day lower than Monday. Res/comm is driving the decline as it is estimated at 24.3 BCF/day, down 3.9 BCF/day while power burn has slipped 0.8 BCF/day. Total consumption is expected to rise to 109 BCF/day over the next week.

Prices are trading stronger this morning as pipeline maintenance weighs on production. Dry output is down 1 BCF/day this morning at 105.3 BCF/day.
Technical Analysis

An early rally attempt on Monday by the April 25 natural gas contract reached a 4.218 high before stalling.
Selling into the close dropped the April contract to a 4.018 daily settle, down .086. Volume was low at 153,362 contracts.
60-minute chart trend line support at the 4.000 level was broken overnight but follow through selling has been minimal.
The daily continuation chart 40 day moving average is at 3.860 today. A close under this average will turn the trend back down.
10 day moving average resistance is at 4.240 with longer term resistance at last week’s 4.9101 high.
Bearish divergences (new price high, lower index high) on the daily RSI and short term trend following indexes suggest a winter top may finally be in place. A bearish dark cloud cover Japanese candlestick also formed on the weekly chart last week but needs to see follow though selling this week for confirmation.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 49.19






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