

The April contract continued to slide on Friday amid further production increases and a downward shift in weather demand. Inventory levels remain the primary bullish factor for natural gas as the market works to restore balance following an extremely cold winter. Apr futures settled 10 cents lower to settle at $3.834. For the week, the spot month declined 29.5 cents.

Prices have turned higher this morning in the midst of record LNG feedgas flows. After reaching an all time high last week near 16 BCF/day, LNG feedgas demand for the first 3 days of March is averaging 15.8 BCF/day. Feedgas flows remained in the 15.4 to 15.5 BCF/day range over the weekend and are projected to average 15.6 BCF/day over the coming 2 weeks.
Total demand slid on Friday to 109.8 BCF/day. It has since moved higher, coming in this morning at 120.8 BCF/day. Total demand is projected to average 121.5 BCF/day over the coming week before falling to an average of 114.6 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. Much of the expected decline stems from lower usage across the res/comm sector.

Weather conditions will vary this week with more widespread warmth not likely to take hold until this later this weekend into early next week. The 6-10 day outlook shows much of the Central US and the Midcon averaging warmer than normal while the 8-14 day shows the entire eastern Half of the US above normal western US below normal. The 3 to 4 week outlook shows a very strong probability for warmth across the eastern 2/3 of the US.
Technical Analysis

The new front month April 25 natural gas contract lost .295 (7.1%) in last week’s trade closing Friday at 3.834, the first lower weekly close in five weeks.
A potentially bearish inside range week was set on the weekly chart but needs to be confirmed with lower trade this week.
The April contract bearishly closed three days last week under the daily continuation chart 10 day moving average. The contract has firmed today after holding above 40 day moving average support on early weakness.
The 40 day moving average at 3.735 today remains primary support. If broken, the trend will turn back down with the 38% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.330 becoming the next area of support.
The 10 day moving average at 4.040 is near term resistance with longer term resistance at the 4.476 high set two weeks ago.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -52.65






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