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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-31-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Stonex Value matrix
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fundamentals & weather
A warm up heading into April has provided weakness this week, particularly in the prompt months.  The transition into more spring like weather is expected to bring a rapid end to heating season.  Res/comm demand levels over the next week are expected to fall by 5 BCF/day to an average of 23 BCF/day.  May futures settled Thursday’s trade down 8 cents at $2.104.

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Last week’s storage withdrawal came in below expectations but still helped narrow the massive surplus.  Stocks fell by 47 BCF in the week ended Mar 24, leaving total gas in storage at 1.853 TCF.  The draw was nearly triple the 5 yr avg pull of 17 BCF and compared to last year’s injection of 15 BCF.  Stocks are now 321 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 442 BCF above last year. 

 

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The 6-10 day period is trending slightly cooler than yesterday.  The period will feature some volatile weather conditions as storms move through the Midwest.
Below normal temps remain across the West early on before some moderation occurs.  Much above to strong above normal temps are expected along the East the middle of next week.  That warmth will begin to dissipate later in the week, leaving much of the US under below normal conditions. 
 
 
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Nat gas is trading higher this morning with the spot month currently up more than 4% on the day.  Prices are  still expected to end the quarter with a record loss. 
 
technical analysis
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The new front month May 23 natural gas contract lost .080 in Thursday’s session as it traded down to a life of contract low at 2.080 before closing the session at 2.104.

The 1.944 low set by the expired April 23 contract remains primary support.  If broken, weekly lows at 1.795 and 1.440, the 25-year low set in June 2020, will become the next areas of support.

A bullish divergence may be forming on the daily chart with prices setting a new low but the indexes setting “higher lows”.  This could be the beginning of a bottom finally forming in the market.

10 day moving average resistance is at 2.145 today followed by the 40 day average at 2.415.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 40.76

seasonal prices
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forward curve pricing
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