

Gas prices surged higher once again Tuesday as trade war fears prompted fund short covering. Despite skepticism over tariffs due to Trump’s initial delay, the actual implementation yesterday helped drive markets higher. Concerns are growing that gas exports from Canada could decline as a result of the 10% tariffs. The massive storage deficit heading into spring also proved supportive. April NG settled 22.8 cents higher on the day at $4.35.

Inventories since the start of withdrawal season have fallen nearly 2.1 BCF, more than 600 BCF compared to last year. As of Feb 21, stocks stood at 1.84 TCF, 23% lower than last year and 11.5% lower than the 5 yr avg. Estimates for this week’s report range from a draw of 90 to 110 BCF. This compares to the 5 yr avg pull of 94 BCF and last year’s draw of just 56 BCF. A 100 BCF pull would leave the year over year deficit at more than 600 BCF while the 5 yr avg deficit would widen to 244 BCF.
Early estimates for the week in progress suggest a draw in the 40-60 BCF range versus the 5 y avg pull of 56 BCF and last year's pull of 19 BCF.
Much of yesterday’s gains stemmed from concern that Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of Canadian gas imports. Last year, the US imported 3.13 TCF of gas from Canada, making up nearly all of its gas imports. Pacific NW states rely on Canada for 89% of their gas supplies. We could see even further escalations given threats to cut off all electricity exports to the US from Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Lower power imports in the NE could increase gas fired generation.

Prices pushed higher this morning as both geopolitical and storage concerns remain supportive. The April contract is currently trading near flat.
Technical Analysis

The April 25 natural gas contract has traded in a .809 range over the last two trading sessions rallying up to a new 2+ year high at 4.551 on Tuesday before closing the day at 4.350.
For the day, the April contract was up .228 (5.5%). Over the past two days, the contract is up .516 (13.4%).
Yesterday’s volume came in at a whopping 350,513 contracts, a high for 2025. It might also mark a final blow off top.
Yesterday’s 4.551 high came very close to the 4.544 high set in November 2014. If resistance is broken, the next longer term resistance will become the November 2018 high at 4.929.
The daily continuation chart 10 day moving average is near term support at 4.110 today. Longer term 40 day moving average support which held on Monday’s low is currently at 3.785. A close under the 40 day average will turn the trend back down.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -62.87






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