

After plunging nearly 70 cents over the prior 3 sessions, the spot month contract ended Wednesday’s trade higher. The market started the day lower on escalating trade tensions before soaring 10% higher yesterday afternoon. The reversal occurred after Trump announced a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs for nearly 75 countries with the exception of China, which would face steeper tariffs of 125%. The May contract settled 35.1 cents higher at $3.816.

LNG feedgas headed toward new record highs yesterday of more than 17 BCF/day given the ongoing LNG expansion in the Gulf Coast. Deliveries to Plaquemines were estimated at 2.4 BCF/day while flows to Corpus Christi hit 2.6 BCF/day.
Concerns have been mounting that rising trade tensions could dampen global demand with the tariff regime likely to reduce the appeal of US LNG exports, particularly to China. Tariffs also threaten to stall the growth of future new US LNG export terminals.
Weekly storage data is expected to continue reducing the deficit which has also fueled the recent downturn. A build of 50 BCF is expected for the week ended Apr 4 which compares to last year’s build of 16 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 17 BCF. Early estimates for next week’s report suggest the deficit could turn higher with a build of 22 BCF likely. This compares to last year’s injection of 46 BCF and the 5 yr avg injection of 50 BCF.

Prices are lower this morning following yesterday’s jump on the tariff pause. Trade is still likely to be choppy in the near term.
Technical Analysis

A bullish reversal in the natural gas market on Wednesday following three days of heavy selling.
After trading down to a new 2-month low at 3.336 in Wednesday’s early trade, the May contract reversed back higher into the close ending the day at 3.816, up .351 (10.1%).
Daily volume came in at the highest level of 2025 registering 359,064 contracts.
A bullish outside range day formed on yesterday’s bar but there has been no follow through buying in today’s early trade.
The 38% retracement support of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.380 was reached in Wednesday’s session.
If yesterday’s 3.336 low is broken as support, the 50% retracement at 3.015 will become the next area of support.
The 10 day moving average held as resistance on Wednesday keeping the market at this point in a sideways to lower trend.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.880 today followed by the 40 day average at 4.035. A close above both averages is needed to renew the bullish uptrend.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 44.25






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