

With the incident at NGTL in Canada contained and Canadian gas supply unaffected, nat gas gave some of Tuesday’s gains back yesterday. Shoulder season weather has kept demand at bay however cooler weather is expected to move in over the next several days, causing an uptick in heating needs. May futures settled 2 cents lower at $1.712.

Estimates for today’s storage data suggest will see a slight reduction in the hefty supply overhang. Projections have moved higher as of this morning with a 50 BCF injection expected for the week ended Apr 12. This compares to last year’s build of 61 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 61 BCF.
Estimates for the week in progress range from 70 to 87 BCF with an average increase of 64 BCF. This compares to last year’s build of 77 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 59 BCF.
Prices are higher this morning ahead of storage data as output holds steady at 99.6 BCF/day and demand levels rise. Platts shows total demand this morning up 4.9 BCF/day to 97.7 BCF. The majority of the increase is stems from a 4 BCF/day rise in res/comm usage. Stronger than normal usage is expected tomorrow through the weekend as colder temps and stormy conditions move across the central, northern and eastern US. Temps should start to warm up by the middle of next week.

Feedgas demand is also coming in stronger on the day, up 0.8 BCF at 10.8 BCF/day. Flows have slowed to Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass due to maintenance while Freeport volumes remain around 1% of operational capacity, indicating all 3 Trains remain offline.

The May 24 natural gas contract lost .020 on Wednesday to settle at 1.711 but held above 1.649 weekly low support on early weakness.
The May contract is currently up in today’s early trade as it tests 10 and 40 day moving average resistance between 1.760-1.780.
If moving average resistance is broken, the near term trend will turn back up with last week’s 1.943 high being the next area of resistance.
1.649 extending down to 1.630 remains primary support. If broken, weekly lows at 1.481 and 1.511 will become the next downside objective.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -48.84






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