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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-2-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
 
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division Heather.Wine@stonex.com 
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20250402085952-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg
StoneX Commodity Indicator
image-20250402090014-2
 
Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas reversed Monday’s run up yesterday as forecasts turned more mild while LNG exports declined amid pipeline maintenance.  A warmer shift in forecast models drove much of the selloff while tariff wars and geopolitical concerns added to downward momentum.  May futures settled 16.8 cents lower at $3.951.

image 110499
Source: Bloomberg, CME

A 3rd consecutive storage injection is expected tomorrow with Reuters predicting a build of 15 BCF and Platts expecting a build of 23 BCF for the week ended March 28.  In either event, the deficit would narrow as estimates compare to last year’s draw of 37 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 13 BCF. With forecast models currently estimating a build of 55 BCF for the week in progress, the deficit will narrow further. 

image 110500​​​​
Source: Bloomberg

Following the addition of 24 HDDs over the weekend, weather models trended warmer yesterday, shedding about 20 HDDs from Monday’s forecast.  A round of below to much below normal temps is still projected for the Eastern US later this week into next week. Conditions however are expected to moderate at a faster pace than previously anticipated. 

Heating demand will see a brief uptick over the next week, averaging 24.1 BCF/day, before  declining back to an average of 20 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. 
 

​​image 110506
Source: NOAA

Spot month prices are back up this morning as the market braces for more tariffs.

 

Technical Analysis

 

image-20250402090106-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The May 25 natural gas contract sold back off on Tuesday following Monday’s rally higher losing .168 (4%) to close the day at 3.951.

All of Monday’s gains were erased on Tuesday as the May contract settled under 10 and 40 day moving average support.   But there has been no follow through selling so far in today’s session.

Tuesday’s 3.934 low is near term support (3.935 current overnight low) followed by last week’s 3.689 low.

Longer term support areas are the 38% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.380 followed by the 50% retracement at 3.015.

A breakout above the 10 day moving average at 3.965 followed by the 40 day moving average at 3.980 will turn Monday’s 4.253 high into the next area of resistance.

Trend following indicators remain bearish and the 10 day moving average bearishly crossed under the 40 day moving average on Tuesday for the first time since early-February.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 49.24

image 110504
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 110503
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 110502
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 110084
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 110083
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
Forward Curve Pricing
image 110505
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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