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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-21-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260421071756-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices edged modestly higher Monday on supportive near term weather demand and strong LNG exports, which offset otherwise soft fundamentals.  The May contract settled 1.5 cents higher at $2.689, its 4th consecutive daily advance. 

The Weather Desk 6-10 day forecast has trended warmer this morning across the Plains and Midwest.  Below normal readings will persist in the NE and NW while expanding further into the Northern Tier. For the 11-15 day period, cooler than normal temps are forecast from the Plains to the East with near normal readings in the West.

Prices are trading higher this morning amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. 

Source: NOAA

Res/comm demand surged to 25.2 BCF/d yesterday as chilly conditions dominated the Midwest and NE. Usage has fallen by 5.7 BCF/d this morning to 19.5 BCF/d as much above normal temps make a brief appearance across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and South Central US.  

Heating demand is expected to taper off over the coming weeks despite some cooler than normal readings.  Platts estimates res/comm usage will average 16.1 BCF/d during the 8-14 day period. 

image 130123Source: StoneX

Dutch TTF nat gas prices rebounded Monday following  renewed uncertainty around LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.  Yesterday’s gains reversed weakness late last week that was tied to hopes for a de-escalation in the war.  Renewed threats yesterday by Iran and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz are keeping EU markets trading cautiously this morning. 

image 130122
Source: StoneX

image-20260421071822-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The May 26 natural gas contract has been trending higher from the 2026 spot contract low at 2.561 set last Tuesday.

In yesterday’s session, the May contract broke out above 10-day moving average resistance in early trade reaching a 2.746 morning high before pulling back into the close.

Daily settle for the contract came in at 2.689, up .015 for the day, while also closing above the 10-day moving average.

The 10-day moving average is near term support today at 2.660 followed by last week’s 2.561 low.  Longer-term support is at 2-year trend line which marked the 2025 spot contract low.  This trend line is currently at the 2.400-2.410 level.

Monday’s 2.746 high is near term resistance followed by 2.780-2.800.  Longer-term resistance is the 40-day moving average currently at 2.910.  A close above the 40-day average will turn the primary trend back higher.

Moving Average Alignment - Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish 

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 40.41

image 130111

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 130110

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 130109

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129059

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 129058

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 130112

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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