

The week debuted with a massive selloff in natural gas as warmer weekend forecasts weighed on demand expectations while trade war uncertainty added further pressure. Declines were further accelerated by a 3% sell off in equity markets. The May contract settled 22.9 cents lower at $3.016.

LNG feedgas demand has been a supportive factor, exceeding 17 BF/day earlier this month. Demand however has eased in recent days, falling to an average of 15.7 BCF/day over the past 6 days. Feedgas demand is pegged this morning at 16.1BCF/day, which is right in line with the current month to date average.
Forecasts for the next 2 weeks suggest minimal weather related demand following warmer changes over the weekend. A warm front is expected to boost temps over the next 5 days across the Midwest while warmer changes are expected in the East during the 6-15 day period. Yesterday’s outlook from Maxar showed a total of 77.9 HDDs over the next 15 days, which would rank as a record low for the period, and 41 CDDs, which is higher than normal.

Prices are trading higher this morning as production weakens while LNG feedgas demand shows signs of improvement. Output is estimated down 0.6 BCF/day at 106 BCF/day due to maintenance across many gas producing regions.
Technical Analysis

After closing down three consecutive weeks, the May 25 natural gas contract began the new week of trade on Monday with a heavy sell off.
The sell off erased .229 (7%) from the value of the May contract which settled at 3.016, a key area of support.
The support reached on Monday was the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.015, the daily continuation chart 200 day moving average at 3.065, and former “breakout” resistance, now support at the same level.
If lower-3.000 support holds in upcoming trade, a post-winter low may be in place.
If support does not hold, the 61.8% retracement at 2.655 will become the next downside objective for the May contract.
3.190-3.200 is near term resistance for the May contract followed by the 10 day moving average currently at 3.360.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 33.75






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